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Uncertainty in Analytical Collision Dynamics Model Due to Assumptions in Dynamic Parameters
1 Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
ABSTRACT: The collision dynamics model is a vital part in maritime risk analysis. Different models have been introduced since Minorsky first presented collision dynamics model. Lately, increased computing capacity has led to development of more sophisticated models. Although the dynamics of ship collisions have been studied and understanding on the affecting factors is increased, there are many assumptions required to complete the analysis. The uncertainty in the dynamic parameters due to assumptions is not often considered. In this paper a case study is conducted to show how input models for dynamic parameters affect the results of collision energy calculations and thus probability of an oil spill. The released deformation energy in collision is estimated by the means of the analytical collision dynamics model Zhang presented in his PhD thesis. The case study concerns the sea area between Helsinki and Tallinn where a crossing of two densely trafficked waterways is located. Actual traffic data is utilized to obtain realistic encounter scenarios by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Applicability of the compared assumptions is discussed based on the findings of the case study.
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Citation note:
Ståhlberg K., Goerlandt F., Montewka J., Kujala P.: Uncertainty in Analytical Collision Dynamics Model Due to Assumptions in Dynamic Parameters. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 47-54, 2012

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