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ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

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Tomasz Neumann
 

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TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Study on Shipping Safety Strategy Based on Accident Forecast Model
1 Dalian Maritime University, Liaoning Province, Dalian, China
ABSTRACT: The factors which would cause shipping accidents are analyzed in detail and a model which can forecast shipping accidents is studied in this paper. During navigation, all the factors are integrated and calculated in this model which then estimate and speculate on the risk degree of collision for the own ship. Finally, the risk level and the possibility of shipping accidents can be forecasted in real-time. The proposed accident forecast model can estimate the possibility of collision with other ships or objects in a specific domain. Meanwhile, the external environment such as weather, stream, etc. is taken into account in the model. Besides, the validity of navigators? orders can also be evaluated in the model which consequently can forecast different kinds of shipping accidents effectively in that most of the factors which cause shipping accidents have been involved in the proposed model. With the accident forecast model, the shipping safety would be improved greatly. A practical example demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strategy.
REFERENCES
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Davis, P V. & Dove, M.J.& Stockel C.T. 1982. A computer simulation of multi-Ship Enocounters. The Journal of navigation 35:347 -352.
Fuji, J & Tanaka K 1971. Traffic capacity. The Journal of navigation 24:543-552.
Goodwin, E.M. 1975. A Statistical Study of Ship Domains. The Journal of navigation 28: 329-341.
Lewison, G.R.G. 1997. The Modelling of Marine Traffic Flow and Potential Encounters. Proceedings of International confereuce on Mathematical Aspects of Marine Traffic pp.139 London
Rafal Szlapczynski 2006. A Unified Measure of Collision Risk Derived From The Concept of A Ship Domain. The Journal of navigation 59:477-490
Zheng Zhongyi & Wu Zhaolin 2000. ship collision avoidance decision-making . Dalian: Dalian Maritime University.
Citation note:
Meng X.Y., Bai Y.M., Han X.J.: Study on Shipping Safety Strategy Based on Accident Forecast Model. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 261-264, 2010

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