HomePage
 




 


 

ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

Editor-in-Chief

Associate Editor
Tomasz Neumann
 

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Probability of Ship on Collision Courses Based on the New PAW Using MMG Model and AIS Data
1 Surabaya Shipbuilding State Polytechnic, Surabaya, Indonesia
2 Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
3 Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya, Indonesia
ABSTRACT: This paper proposes an estimation method for ships on collision courses taking crash astern maneuvers based on a new potential area of water (PAW) for maneuvering. A crash astern maneuver is an emergency option a ship can take when exposed to the risk of a collision with other ships that have lost control. However, lateral forces and yaw moments exerted by the reversing propeller, as well as the uncertainty of the initial speed and initial yaw rate, will move the ship out of the intended stopping position landing it in a dangerous area. A new PAW for crash astern maneuvers is thus introduced. The PAW is developed based on a probability density function of the initial yaw rate. Distributions of the yaw rates and speeds are analyzed from automatic identification system (AIS) data in Madura Strait, and estimated paths of the maneuvers are simulated using a mathematical maneuvering group model.
REFERENCES
Asmara, I.P.S., Kobayashi. E., Wakabayashi, N., Khanfir, S. & Pitana, T. 2012. Uncertainty Analysis for the Estimation of Ship Maneuverability in Tanjung Perak Port Area using MMG Model and AIS Data; Proceedings of the 15th Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers, Tokyo, 25-26 November 2012.
Fujii, Y., Yamanouchi, H. & Mizuki, N. 1974. Some Factors Affecting the Frequency of Accidents in Marine Traffic: II The Probability of Stranding and III the Effect of Darkness on the Probability of Collision and Stranding. The Journal of Navigation 27: 239–249.
Goerlandt, F. & Kujala, P. 2011. Traffic Simulation Based Ship Collision Probability Modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96: 91-107.
Inoue, K. 1990. Concept of Potential Area of Water as an Index for Risk Assessment in Ship Handling. The Journal of Navigation 43(1):1-7.
Kobayashi, E. 1995. The Development of Practical Simulation System to Evaluate Ship Maneuverability in Shallow Water; Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Practical Design of Ships and Mobile Unites (PRADS ’95), Seoul,17-22 September 1995.
Kristiansen, S. 2005. Maritime Transportation: Safety Man-agement and Risk Analysis. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, Traffic-Based Model: 133-171.
Mulyadi, Y. Kobayashi, E. Wakabayashi, N. Pitana, T. & Wahyudi 2014. Development of Ship Sinking Frequency Model Over Subsea Pipeline for Madura Strait Using AIS Data. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs 13(1): 53-59.
Yoshimura, Y. & Masumoto, Y. 2012. Hydrodynamic Database and Maneuvering Prediction Method with Medium High-Speed Merchant Ships and Fishing Vessels; Proceedings of International MARSIM Conference, Singapore, 23-27 April 2012.
Yoshimura, Y. & Nomoto, K. 1978. Modeling of Maneuvering of Ships with a Propeller Idling, Boosting and Reversing. The Society of Naval Architects of Japan 144, 57-69 (in Japanese).
Yoshimura, Y. 1980. Mathematical model and Application of Maneuvering Behavior with a Propeller Idling, Boosting and Reversing. Doctoral Dissertation of Hokkaido University, Japan (in Japanese)
Citation note:
Asmara I., Kobayashi E., Wakabayashi N., Artana KB: Probability of Ship on Collision Courses Based on the New PAW Using MMG Model and AIS Data. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 9, No. 1, doi:10.12716/1001.09.01.05, pp. 43-50, 2015

Other publications of authors:


File downloaded 795 times








Important: TransNav.eu cookie usage
The TransNav.eu website uses certain cookies. A cookie is a text-only string of information that the TransNav.EU website transfers to the cookie file of the browser on your computer. Cookies allow the TransNav.eu website to perform properly and remember your browsing history. Cookies also help a website to arrange content to match your preferred interests more quickly. Cookies alone cannot be used to identify you.
Akceptuję pliki cookies z tej strony