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ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

Editor-in-Chief

Associate Editor
Tomasz Neumann
 

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Managing and Predicting Maritime and Off-shore Risk
1 Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Ontario, Chalk River, Canada
2 International Federation of Airworthiness, East Grinstead, W. Sussex, United Kingdom
ABSTRACT: We wish to predict when an accident or tragedy will occur, and reduce the probability of its occurrence. Maritime accidents, just like all the other crashes and failures, are stochastic in their occurrence. They can seemingly occur as observed outcomes at any instant, without warning. They are due to a combination of human and technological system failures, working together in totally unexpected and/or undetected ways, occurring at some random moment. Massive show the cause is due to an unexpected combination or sequence of human, management, operational, design and training mistakes. Once we know what happened, we can fix the engineering or design failures, and try to obviate the human ones. We utilize reliability theory applied to humans, and show how the events rates and probability in shipping is related to other industries and events through the human involvement. We examine and apply the learning hypothesis to shipping losses and other events at sea, including example Case Studies stretching over some 200 years of: (a) merchant and fishing vessels; (b) oil spills and injuries in off-shore facilities; and (c) insurance claims, inspection rules and premiums. These include major losses and sinkings as well as the more everyday events and injuries. By using good practices and achieving a true learning environment, we can effectively defer the chance of an accident, but not indefinitely. Moreover, by watching our experience and monitoring our rate, understand and predict when we are climbing up the curve. Comparisons of the theory to all available human error data show a reasonable level of accord with the learning hypothesis. The results clearly demonstrate that the loss (human error) probability is dynamic, and may be predicted using the learning hypothesis. The future probability estimate is derivable from its unchanged prior value, based on learning, and thus the past frequency predicts the future probability. The implications for maritime activities is discussed and related to the latest work on managing risk, and the analysis of trends and safety indicators.
REFERENCES
Berman, B.D. 1972. Encyclopaedia of American Shipwrecks, Boston, Mariners Press.
Duffey, R.B. and Saull, J.W. 2002. Know the Risk, First Edi-tion, Boston, Butterworth and Heinemann.
Duffey, R.B., Saull, J.W. and Myers, P. 2004 Learning from Experience: Application to the Analysis of Pipeline and Storage Tank Safety Data and Potential Spill Reduction, Presentation given at National Institute for Storage Tank Management’s 7th Annual International Conference in Or-lando, Florida, May 12-14.
Duffey, R.B. and Saull, J.W. 2008. Managing Risk: The Hu-man Element, West Sussex, UK, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Duffey, R.B and Skjerve, A.B., 2008, Risk Trends, Indicators and Learning Rates: A New Case Study of North Sea Oil and Gas, Proceedings ESREL 2008, 17th SRA Conference, Valencia, Spain.
Institute of London Underwriters (ILU) 1988 et seq. Hull Cas-ualty Statistics, data for 1987-1997, International Union of Marine Insurance Conferences (see also http://www.iua.co.uk).
Pickford, N. 1994. The Atlas of Ship Wrecks & Treasure, New York, Dorling Kindersheg Publishing.
Pomeroy, V. 2001. Classification – Adapting and Evolving to Meet Challenges in the New Safety Culture, Safety of Modern Technical Systems, TUV, Saarland Foundation, Germany, p. 281.
UK Protection and Indemnity Mutual Insurance Club 2000. Analysis of Major Claims, London (see http://www.ukpandi.com)
Citation note:
Duffey R.B., Saull J.W.: Managing and Predicting Maritime and Off-shore Risk. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 181-188, 2009

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