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ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

Editor-in-Chief

Associate Editor
Tomasz Neumann
 

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Innovative Probabilistic Prediction of Accident Occurrence
1 Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
2 Japan Marine Science Inc., Japan
ABSTRACT: In the present paper, a safety evaluation index that determines the probability of accident occurrence of collision and stranding when the experiment is executed using a ship handling simulator is proposed, by noting Unsafe Ship Handling Situations. The number of Unsafe Ship Handling Situation was counted from the results of simulator trials, and the accident ratio was surveyed from the past records of sea casualties in the corresponding water area. The correlation between the appearance ratio of Unsafe Ship Handling Situation and the accident ratio showed reasonable coincidence with the order of 10-3. When port administrator tries to assess the effectiveness of safety improvement planning of port and harbour facilities, it can be said that this kind of probabilistic prediction model of accident occurrence is indispensable from the aspect of introducing cost effectiveness analysis.
REFERENCES
Inoue Kinzo, 1990, Concept of Potential Area of Water as an Index of Risk Assessment of Ship Handling, The Journal of Navigation, The Royal Institute of Navigation, Vol.43, No.1, pp.1-7
Inoue Kinzo, Sera Wataru and Masuda Kenji, 1998, Evaluation of Ship Handling Safety based on the Concept of PAW, The Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation, No.99, pp.163-171
Inoue Kinzo, Sera Wataru, Masuda Kenji and Usui Hideo, 2000, Guidelines to Assess the Safety of Marine Traffic-IV, –Estimation of Potential Danger of Near Miss-, The Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation, No.102, pp.203-209
Citation note:
Inoue K., Kawase M.: Innovative Probabilistic Prediction of Accident Occurrence. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 19-22, 2007

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