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ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

Editor-in-Chief

Associate Editor
Tomasz Neumann
 

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship Based on Expert Opinions
1 Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland
ABSTRACT: The event of the loss of propulsion function has been defined as hazardous event to a seagoing ship. It has been formalized. The procedure of acquisition of expert opinions on frequency of the event occurrence has been described. It may be considered to be of a numerical-fuzzy character. The fuzzy part was transferred to the numerical form by the pair comparison method. An example of the ship propulsion system comprising a low speed internal combustion engine and a solid propeller illustrates the method presented. It may be used wherever a hazard analysis has to be performed of a system involving human and technical aspects and there is a shortage of objective data on the investigated object.
REFERENCES
Gniedienko, B.V. & Bielajev, J.K. & Soloviev, A.D. 1965. Mathematical Methods in Reliability Theory (in Polish). Warszawa: Wydawnictwa Naukowo-Techniczne.
Saaty, T.L. 1980. The Analytical Hierarchy Process. New York et al: McGraw-Hill.
Kwiesielewicz, M. 2002. Analytical Hierarchy Decision Pro-cess. Fuzzy and Non-fuzzy Paired Comparison (in Polish). Warszawa: Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN.
Modarres, M. & Kaminskiy, M. & Krivtsov. 1999. Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis. New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker, Inc.
Piegat, A. 1999. Fuzzy Modeling and Control (in Polish). War-szawa: Akademicka Oficyna Wydawnicza EXIT.
IMO. Resolution A.849(20). 1997. Code for the investigation of marine casualties and incidents. London.
Roland, H. E. & Moriarty, B. 1990. System Safety Engineering and Management. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, Chichester, Brisbane, Toronto, Singapore.
Citation note:
Brandowski A., Frąckowiak W.: Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship Based on Expert Opinions. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 449-454, 2009

Other publications of authors:

A. Brandowski, A. Mielewczyk, H. Nguyen, W. Frąckowiak

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