ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)




Associate Editor
Prof. Tomasz Neumann

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@umg.edu.pl
Use of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis and Noisy-OR Gate Bayesian Network for Navigational Risk Assessment in Qingzhou Port
ABSTRACT: Collisions and groundings account for more than 80% among all types of maritime accidents, and risk assessment is an essential step in the formal safety assessment. This paper proposes a method based on fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for navigational risk assessment. First, a fault tree model was established with historical data, and the probability of basic events is calculated using fuzzy sets. Then, the Noisy-OR gate is utilized to determine the conditional probability of related nodes and obtain the probability distribution of the consequences in the Bayesian network. Finally, this proposed method is applied to Qinzhou Port. From sensitivity analysis, several predominant influencing factors are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequence is sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and reasonable method for risk assessment for navigational accidents.
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Citation note:
Zhao C.C., Wu B., Yip T.L., Lv J.: Use of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis and Noisy-OR Gate Bayesian Network for Navigational Risk Assessment in Qingzhou Port. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 15, No. 4, doi:10.12716/1001.15.04.07, pp. 765-771, 2021

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