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2024 Journal Impact Factor - 0.6
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ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
Editor-in-Chief
Associate Editor
Prof. Tomasz Neumann
Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
e-mail transnav@umg.edu.pl
Towards Green Ferry Corridors in the Adriatic Sea – Integrating Monte Carlo Simulations into Life Cycle Costing Scheme for Methanol
1 University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
2 University of Montenegro, Kotor, Montenegro
3 Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
2 University of Montenegro, Kotor, Montenegro
3 Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
ABSTRACT: The maritime transport sector is essential to global trade, handling a large share of international trade volume, but its reliance on fossil fuels raises significant environmental and economic concerns. The transition to greener options is slow, with 98.8% of the fleet still using fossil fuel, while the research into economic performance of this transition often overlooks fuel price volatility, a critical factor influenced by global events which have caused significant fuel price fluctuations. This paper introduces a model which incorporates fuel price volatility into lifecycle cost assessments (LCCA) on an example of a ferry connecting the Croatian and Italian shores of the Adriatic Sea. A comparison of diesel- and methanol-powered systems is provided, using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate economic sustainability under volatile fuel prices. Diesel prices showed a consistently symmetrical and normal distribution across all simulations, indicating a stable price range, while methanol prices demonstrated more volatility. The LCCA results, which included the simulated fuel prices, showed that methanol-powered systems despite greater price volatility, show lower overall costs through different carbon taxation scenarios.
KEYWORDS:
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Citation note:
Koričan M., Sjerić M., Nikolić D., Fan A., Vladimir N.: Towards Green Ferry Corridors in the Adriatic Sea – Integrating Monte Carlo Simulations into Life Cycle Costing Scheme for Methanol. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 19, No. 4, doi:10.12716/1001.19.04.28, pp. 1295-1304, 2025
Authors in other databases:
Marija Koričan:
Momir Sjerić:
Danilo Nikolić:
Ailong Fan:
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