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2024 Journal Impact Factor - 0.6
2024 CiteScore - 1.9
ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
Editor-in-Chief
Associate Editor
Prof. Tomasz Neumann
Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
e-mail transnav@umg.edu.pl
Incorporating Probabilistic Mutual Interactions in Simulation-Based Safety Evaluation of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships
1 Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan
ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a “Probabilistic Reactive Target Model” that generates avoidance behaviors for target ships to evaluate the collision avoidance algorithms of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) in a realistic simulation environment. Focusing on the “shift of the Points of Potential Collision (PPC)” resulting from collision avoidance maneuvers in one-on-one head-on situations, we conducted indirect probabilistic modeling using AIS data. Specifically, we constructed a state transition probability model by estimating the directional probability of the PPC shifting to either the starboard or port side using a linear binary classification model, and by estimating the parameters of the passing distance distribution for each side using a neural network, assuming a log-normal distribution. Furthermore, by iteratively sampling and evaluating transitions to target states that follow this model, we demonstrated that it is possible to generate behaviors in a simulation environment where target ships react to the movements of the MASS.
KEYWORDS: Safety of Navigation, Risk Assessment, e-Navigation, Methods and Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Ships, Navigation, Manoeuvering and Ship-handling Simulation, Marine Traffic Control and Automatic Identification Systems
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Citation note:
Ishii M., Tamaru H.: Incorporating Probabilistic Mutual Interactions in Simulation-Based Safety Evaluation of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 20, No. 2, doi:10.12716/1001.20.02.13, pp. 387-395, 2026
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