Journal is indexed in following databases:

2022 Journal Impact Factor - 0.6
2022 CiteScore - 1.7




ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)




Associate Editor
Prof. Tomasz Neumann

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
Changes in Oil Transportation in the Years 2020 and 2030 - The Case of the Gulf of Finland
1 University of Turku, Turku, Finland
ABSTRACT: This paper covers the current state of maritime oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and the development of oil transportation in the 2000s, as well as estimations of transported oil volumes in 2020 and 2030 in the Gulf of Finland. The scenarios were formulated on the basis of a current state analysis, energy and transportation strategies and scenarios and expert assessments. The study showed that the volumes of oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland will increase only moderately compared to the current status: 9.5-33.8 %, depending on the scenario. Green energy policy favours renewable energy sources, which can be seen in the smaller volumes of transported oil in the 2030 scenarios compared to the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.
Baltic Sea Action Group 2008. Clean and Safe Maritime Activities. Available at URL:
Cohen A (2007) Europe`s Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy. Backgrounder. No. 2083. November 5, 2007. Published by the Heritage Foundation.
BOFIT (2012) The Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition, Strategy 2020 emphasises economic cooperation with CIS countries and the EU. Available at URL:
Commission of the European Communities 2009. Communication from the commission to the European Parliamnet, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Strategic goals and recommendations for the EU`s maritime transport policy until 2018. Available at URL:
European Commission 2010. Climate Action. The EU climate and energy package. Available at URL:
European Commission 2011. Maritime transport. Motorways of the Sea. Available at URL:
Finland`s Ministery of the Environment 2011. EU´s climate- and energy packet. Available at URL:
Hamburg, A. 2007. Estonian National Energy Strategy. Oil Shale, 2007, Vol 24, No.2 Special. Pages 332-336. Estonian Academy Publisher. Available at URL:
HELCOM 2009. Overview of the shipping in the Baltic Sea. Vailable at URL:
Holma, E., Heikkilä, A., Helminen, R. & Kajander S. 2011. Baltic Port List 2011. Market review of cargo development in the Baltic Sea ports. University of Turku. ISBN 978-951-29-4785-0.
Hänninen, S. & Rytkönen, J. 2004. Oil transportation and terminal development in the Gulf of Finland. VTT Publications 547. Espoo 2004. Available at URL:
Kisel, E. 2008. Developing Estonian energy policy hand in hand with EU energy packages. Available at URL:
Knuutila, S. 2011 The easternmost waters of the Baltic. Available at URL:
Knuutila, S., Jolma, K. and Asanti, T. (2009). The Imapcts of oil on the marine environment. Available: at URL
Kupchinsky, R. 2009. Russian Oil and Gas in 2030. Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6, Issue: 164. Available at URL:
Leningrad Region 2011. The Baltic pipeline System – the key federal project in the Leningrad Region. Available at URL:
Liuhto, K. 2010. Liuhto K (2010) Energy in Russia´s foreign policy. Available at URL:
Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation 2003. The Summary of The Energy Strategy of Russia for the period of up to 2020. Moscow. Available at URL:
Myrberg, K., Raateoja, M. and Lumiaro, R. 2011. Itämeren peruskuvaus. Suomen ympäristökeskus and Edita. Available at URL:
Pasp Russia 2012. Большой порт Санкт-Петербург (Big Port of St. Peterburg). Available at URL:
Pasp Russia 2014. Грузооборот 12 месяцев 2013 года. Available at URL:
Port of Tallinn 2011. Muuga Harbour. Available at URL:
Turunen, T., Lepistö, A. and Ritonummi, T. 2008. Pitkän aikavälin ilmasto- ja energiastrategia (A Longterm climate and energy strategy). Available at URL:
UK Trade & Investment 2010. Russia – Opportunities for UK-based companies in the ports sector. Available at URL:
Ust-Luga Company 2012. The Internet site of Ust-Luga Company. Available at URL:
Woehrel S (2012) Current Politics & Economics of Europe. 2012, Vol. 23 Issue ¾, p.403-433. 31 p.
World maritime news 2012. Russia: First Shipment from Ust-Luga Crude Oil Terminal to Rotterdam. Posted on March 28th.2012. Available at URL:
Citation note:
Brunila O-.P., Storgård J.: Changes in Oil Transportation in the Years 2020 and 2030 - The Case of the Gulf of Finland. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 8, No. 3, doi:10.12716/1001.08.03.11, pp. 403-409, 2014

Other publications of authors:

File downloaded 1049 times

Important: cookie usage
The website uses certain cookies. A cookie is a text-only string of information that the TransNav.EU website transfers to the cookie file of the browser on your computer. Cookies allow the website to perform properly and remember your browsing history. Cookies also help a website to arrange content to match your preferred interests more quickly. Cookies alone cannot be used to identify you.
Akceptuję pliki cookies z tej strony