529
1 INTRODUCTION
The advanced globalization processes supported by
economic deregulation processes and consequently,
liberalization of all types of markets, in particular
capital and freight markets, and consequently, also
transport markets, generated a new dimension of
global transport area. In the conditions of common
logisticsstandardsofmanagingthecommodityflows
and the development of global supply chains and
networks,thisareahasstronglybeenanchoredinthe
global system of logistics area. As a result, we can
observegradualrealintegrationofTSL(Transport–
Forwarding‐Logistics) global sector, based on the
formula of integrating its markets with commodity
markets.
This, in turn, leads to developing
mechanisms facilitating the global trade transport
service, provided under the standards of logistics
efficiencyofcommodityflows(Branch,2009).
Therefore, globalization, by building the global
economy development potential able to function as
onerelativelyconsistentsysteminrealtime,develops
at the same time the
global transport and logistics
area. In this sense the global economy can be
perceived from the transport and logistics
perspective,asacertainmega‐systemoftheoperating
global supply chains and networks and logistics
supply chains and networks linking the centres of
productionandconsumptiondispersedintheglobal
area. The supply chains and networks cover within
theirscopealltypesofmarketsoperatingonaglobal
scale.Atthesametime,theyorderalltypesofflows
within these markets, optimizing them as per time
and costs. In turn, these flows are linked in the
physical sense and integrated
by transport chains
anchored in the system of transport and logistics
infrastructure.
Global Container Shipping Market Development and Its
Impact on Mega Logistics System
A.S.Grzelakowski
GdyniaMaritimeUniversity,Gdynia,Poland
ABSTRACT:Themainpurposeofthepaperistorecognizeandcharacterizethesubstantialtrendsandongoing
phenomenaaswellasprocessesonthesupplyanddemandsideoftheglobaloceancontainermarketandthen
evaluatetheirimpactonglobalsupplychainsandthewhole
megalogisticssystem.Theauthorhasanalysed
thedynamicsofpotentialsupplyandeffectivedemandgrowthonthismarketintherecentyearsandassessed
changes observed onboth market sides with respect to global logistics area. On this basis, the influence of
globalcontainer market development on globallogistics
supplychains has been estimated. There were also
presented and analysed the main effects of speeding‐up implementation of disruptive innovations such as
blockchain technology and digital trade platforms development in maritime container transport and trade
sectorson the efficiency and effectiveness of global logistics chains and the whole logistics area.
The issues
relatedtothesecurityofsmoothdigitaldevelopmentofcontainermaritimetransportandthemegalogistics
areaweretakenintoconsiderationaswell.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 13
Number 3
September 2019
DOI:10.12716/1001.13.03.06
530
However, the integration of commodity and
transportmarketsandconsequently,thedevelopment
of globally consistent transport and logistics area
failed to reach the level of growth indispensable for
thecurrentstageofglobalizationprocess.Itgenerates
anumberofadverseeffectsforallcomponentsofthe
global supply chain and
thus, for the whole global
economy.Consequently,boththeoperatorsofglobal
supply chains and networks and the international
economicorganizations,suchas:WTO(WorldTrade
Organization),WEF(WorldEconomicForum),OECD
(Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development),WB(World Bank),IMF(International
Monetary Fund), UNCTAD (United Nations
Conference on
Trade and Development) and other,
take various initiatives and actions to eliminate or
reduce the existing barriers. Many of them are
transportandlogisticsbarriers,limitingtheefficiency
and effectiveness of the global trade service. Mostly
these barriers constitute the subject of research
provided in this study. Due to the frame
of this
article,theauthorconcentratedsolelyonthemaritime
sector of the global supply chain, including freight
markets as the real and potential source able to
generate,inthetimeofcrisis andinstability,serious
disturbances in the global supply chain operations
andconsequently,inthemegalogisticsarea.
Themainobjectiveofthisarticleistoidentifythe
effectsresultingfromtheimbalancebetweeneffective
demandandpotentialsupplyontheglobalmaritime
container markets. To this end, the operations on
thesemarketsaftertheworldcrisisof2008and2009
were analysed, indicating the main reasons for the
stages of imbalance, methods of their measurement
and actions taken by the global container operators
leadingtotheirgradualreductionorelimination.The
grounds for research hypothesis, subject to
verificationbytheauthor,providethatitisnecessary
toensurefurtherintensificationofthesaidactivities–
investmentaswell
asoperationalandorganizational
activities, and regulatory and coordination activities
inthesectorofmaritimecontainertransport,andalso
withintheglobaltransportandlogistics.Tofulfilthe
objective of the study and verify the accepted
hypothesis the author used methods of economic
analysis and qualitative research, supporting the
process of
inference with opinions and information
presentedinspecializedreportsofresearchinstitutes,
suchas:Alphaliner,DHLLogistics,Drewryandother
internationaleconomicorganizations.
2 GLOBALMARITIMECONTAINERTRANSPORT
ASAFACTOROFTRADEANDLOGISTICS
MARKETSDEVELOPMENT
Atpresent,asignificantroleintheglobaltransportas
well as global
logistics area is attached to the
maritimetransport,includingitskeysegment,namely
seaborne container transport. Maritime transport
carries over 10.8 bn tonnes of cargo (2017), i.e. over
81% of the world trade volume. It is predicted that
between 2018 and 2023, the average annual rate of
growthofseabornetransport
wouldamountto3.8%.
Ifthishigh rateofgrowthissustained,then in2020
thistransportwillincreaseto12.5‐13.0bntonnes,and
in 2030 it might exceed 16.5 bn tonnes. (Mandryk
2011). Whereas, per transport performance unit, the
share of maritime transport in the global trade
services
amounts to more than 92 % and is steadily
increasing because of the growing volume and
averagedistanceofcarriage.(ICS,2017)
Maritime transport is also a dominant sector of
transportintheglobaltrade,ifitsshareismeasured
by the quantity of goods carried per value units.
Excluding the
EU internal trade, it is estimated that
nowadaysitsshareinoveralltransportamountstoca.
76 per cent.
Whereas, including the trade within EU
memberstates,asanintegralpartofglobaltrade,itis
estimated that at present the share of maritime
transportintheworldtradeservicesbasedonexport
valuetotals59percent.(Grzelakowski,2018)
Assuming, under WTO data from 2018, that the
value of
global freight export in 2017 amounted to
USD 17.73 bn, we can estimate that the value of
maritimetradeonaglobalscalereachingnearlyUSD
11.0bn.[WTO2018].Thevalueofseabornetransport,
asdefinedabove,hassteadilybeenincreasing–faster
thanthevolumeofexportedgoods.
Asaresult,itis
assumed that in 2023, maritime transport will carry
goodsworthatleastUSD13.1bn.$.Consequently,it
means that today the average value of one ton of
seabornecargototalsoverUSD1,050andwithinthe
lastdecadethetendencyhassteadilybeenincreasing
(however,
between 2014 and 2016, we observed a
significantdecreaseinthisarea).
Apart from the increase in prices andchanges in
the assortment structure of global trade and
transportation, this tendency is significantly affected
by the process of bulk‐breaking and, first of all,
containerization. Since the tendency is increasing,
which refers to the development of logistic supply
chainsandnetworksdemandingmorerapidincrease
in the pace, timeliness and safety of supplies, the
percentage of high‐value goods in maritime trade is
steadily increasing; nowadays, their share in global
tradeisestimatedatmin.71percentofthevalue
of
globalexport,i.e.min.USD12.7bn.Assumingunder
theUNCTADandWTOdatabasethatatpresent17.1
per cent of the maritime transport volume and as
much as 58 per cent of its value is transported in
containers on a global scale, it is estimated that in
2017
thismodeoftransportcarriedgoodsworthUSD
6.38bninmorethan148millionTEU.Thevaluecan
alsobeexpressedwithreferencetothevalueofglobal
production–itssharetotalsUSD1pereachUSD15
of generated production. (Global Insight, 2016). It
means that the average
value of 1 ton of seaborne
cargo exported in containers amounts to ca. USD
4,100 and is 4.1 times higher than the average unit
value of cargo in maritime trade. (Grzelakowski,
2018)
Therefore,maritimetransportensuresandcreates,
inthetechnicalandoperationalaswellaseconomic
andfinancialterms,
adequatetransportand logistics
potential indispensable for further undisturbed
development of global trade, and consequently the
increase in global economy. Intermodal transport
playsavitalroleinthisrespect–containerizationas
the carrier of globalization and leverage of global
tradedevelopmentaswellasefficiencyinthelogistic
supplychains
operations.Itresultsfromthatfactthat
nowadaystheaveragecostsofcontainercarriageby
531
seaconstituteonly3‐4percentofthevalueofcargo
carried by this type of transport and the cost of
carrying 40” container with cargo at a distance of 1
nautical mile totals on average USD 0.10, which
constitutesbarelyafractionofcostsofitscarriageby
road.Asaresult,onaglobalscale,theshareofglobal
importtransport handling costs has beendecreasing
forover 20 years. Thus, between2005 and 2017,the
globaltradevolumewasincreasingonaverageby3.8
per cent annually, and its value by 7.9‐8.1 per cent,
whereas
the shippers’ expenditure measured as per
freightpaid,wasincreasingonaverageonlywithin50
per cent of this value. The va lue of expenditure
incurred by exporters and importers with regard to
freight paid for the carriage of goods by sea is
estimated nowadays at ca. USD 798 bn, which
constitutes
ca.4.5percentoftheglobalimportintotal
and 6.7 per cent of the value of maritime transport
goodsdeterminedperimport.(UNCTAD,2018)
3 GLOBALMARITIMECONTAINERMARKET
DEVELOPMENT‐MAINTRENDSAND
MARKETPHENOMENA
The demand side of global maritime container
shipping market, defined by the segment
of
commoditymarketsthataresubjecttoregular,short‐
and medium‐term fluctuations in time, is
characterisedbysignificantlyhighrateofchange.The
phenomenonispresentedinfig.1.(UNCTAD,2018)
Figure1. Development of maritime global container
transportmarket anditsdynamicsbetween 1996and 2018
(Million 20‐foot equivalent units and percentage annual
change).
Source:((UNCTAD,2018,p.13)
As a result of definitely higher rate of change in
effective demand relative to potential supply of
transport services on the container markets, the
imbalance of these markets is in effect a common
phenomenon. It is additionally deepened by the
imbalance between commodity sequences at the
majorityof
maincontainerroutes,whichispresented
in the specification below. As a result, the
characteristic feature of these markets involves their
permanent state of imbalance, exp ressed in the
detachmentofthedemandsidefromthesupplyside.
(UNCTAD,2018&WSC,2018)
Table1. Containerized trade on major East‐West trade
routes,2014–2018(Million20‐footequivalents).
Source:(UNCTAD,2018,p.15)
Asaresultofthesurprisinglylowrateofgrowth,
ongoing since 2012, regarding the demand for
containerized transport by sea (nearly ca. 3.5 per
cent), at its significant fluctuations at the container
markets dominated by the type of competitive
oligopoly, we can observe significant fluctuations of
freight and charter
rates. The scale of these
fluctuationsispresentedinfig.2.(Alphaliner,2018)
Figure2. Freight and charter rates fluctuation on global
maritimecontainermarketintherecentyears.
Source:(Alphaliner,2018)
The phenomenon can clearly be observed in all
segmentsofthismarketonaglobalscale,urgingthe
container operators to maintain the accounting
liquidity to avoid possible bankruptcy. These
activitiesimplementedbyglobalcontainerownersin
the situation of significant ma rket imbalance are
532
mainly expressed in actions aiming to reduce unit
costsoftonnageoperatingand1TEUtransportcosts.
Theirimplementationinvolves:
1 introducing into operation mega container ships
(VLCC‐ Very Large Container Carrier) of over
18000TEU,
2 optimizinglineservicesbylimitingtheirnumber,
3 limiting competition through actions
leading to
horizontalintegrationofthesectorandthemarket,
whichcanbe observed through frequentmergers
and acquisitions, as well as establishing new
shippingalliances,
4 expanding the scale of production and its
diversification within the transport chain, to
minimize the threat of bankruptcy through
increasedengagementofoperations
andcapitalin
other components of global supply chain, and
mainly the harbour sector – container terminals
and other segments of global TSL (vertical
integration of operational companies and the
market).
The phenomenon of increasing concentration of
the supply side and horizontal integration of the
containerized trade market on a global
scale is
presentedinfig.3.(UNCTAD,2018)
Figure3. Global container market integration via ongoing
supplysideconsolidation.
Source:(UNCTAD,2018,p.44)
Such actions accompanied by the ongoing
dynamic processes of horizontal integration, i.e.
entity‐wise integration, as well as tonnage and
operational capital concentration, and important for
themarket,verticalintegrationconductedwithinthe
supply chain lead to changes in the traditional
business models of global maritime
container
operators.Thechanges,occurringmainlyinthegroup
of15keyleadersofthemarket,canbeobservedinthe
gradualdeparturefromtheconfrontationalmodel,i.e.
totalcompetition,towardsamodelbasedtoagreater
extendoncooperation.Ittakestheformofhorizontal
consolidation implemented within the
formula of
shipping alliances, as well as mergers and
acquisitions, and vertical integration – by searching
for new forms of connections with shippers and
transport operators and logistics service providers
within global supply chains. (Grzelakowski, 2018;
WSC,2018andMDSTransmodal,2018)
Theongoingentity‐wiseandstructuralchangesof
the
supplysideofglobalmaritimecontainerizedtrade
marketandthebehaviourofrelatedoperatorsleadto
deep changes in the regulatory and distribution
model of the market as well as allocation model
(operationalchanges).Consequently,wecanobserve
certaintransformationoftheprevioustypeofmarket
changing very dynamically at
the main carriage
routes – partial markets towards competitive
oligopoly, and on a global scale, clearly towards
duopoly. (Grzelakowski, 2018) The changes,
occurring within the most dynamically developing
over the past 30 years global freight market‐the
market of still significant rate of growth and
increasing value significantly affecting not only
the
harbour market but also other transport and global
commoditymarkets‐exertmoreandmoreinfluence
ontheareaofglobalsupplychainsandnetworks.As
a result, they co‐determine the efficiency and
effectivenessparametersofglobaltransportarea and
consequentlythemegalogisticsarea.(WB,2016)
4 GLOBAL
TRANSPORTANDLOGISTICSAREA.
ITSEFFICIENCYANDEFFECTIVENESS
STANDARDS
Fromthelogisticsperspective,globaleconomycanbe
perceived as mega‐system of transport and logistics
connectionsdeterminedbyactivelyoperatingsupply
chainsandnetworksandlogisticssupplychainsand
networks. The system is based on the existing
infrastructure combining the centres
of production
and consumption dispersed in the global area. The
globallogisticsnetworkisaphysicalstructureofthe
suppliersandrecipientslogisticsservicesonaglobal
scale,integratingtheeconomicareainallaspects.The
logisticsnetworkspreadwithinglobalspatialsystem,
asthemegalogisticssystemwithits
mostimportant
transport segment, is continuously adapting to new
market conditions, integrating globally fragmented
commodity and transport markets, including freight
andothermarkets.(Chopra&Meindl,2010)
The quality of global logistics area perceived
through the efficiency and effectiveness of global
trade commodity flows, functioning within the
supply chains and networks
in this area, is
conditional upon numerous factors. They determine
costs and time incurred by the shippers, and
consequently by the consumers of goods carried
withintheexistinggloballogisticssupplychainsand
networks–includingsea‐bornegoods.Thetransport
and logistics costs as per direct and indirect costs
which occur in the export relation of global
supplyhain are in general terms presented in fig. 4.
(WB,2018)
Figure4.Directandindirecttransportandlogisticscostsin
thegloballandandmaritimesupplychain
Source:(WB,2018).
The factors and costs are subject of analyses
conducted by the World Bank who significantly
highlightstheelementofinfrastructureandqualityof
533
transport and logistics services, as two of the most
frequently indicated barriers to the increase in
effectiveness of globallogistics area. It also refers to
its transport segment and improved efficiency of
globaltransportandlogisticsmarkets,aswellastheir
quality.(WB,2018andWEF,2018).Agroupof
these
factors related to particular parameters used to
provide partial rankings of logistics macro‐areas, is
presentedinfig.5.(WB,2018)
Figure5.Setoffactorsandindicatorsdefiningtheefficiency
ofglobalsupplychainsandgloballogisticsarea.
Source:(WB,2018)
Among these factors, key importance from the
perspective of the subject analysed in this article,
refers to transport and market elements, such as:
maritime and logistics infrastructure, quality of
logistics services, timeliness, international shipments
as well as tracking and tracing. They primarily
determinethelevelofdirectandindirectcosts–
asthe
function of sea‐borne container shipping time. Only
multifaceted actions taken by global container
operators focused on improving the parameters
definingtheleveloflogisticsefficiency withineachof
these factors lead to the increased efficiency and
effectiveness of global transport and logistics area.
Theyalsoprovidegrounds
forintroducinginnovative
solutionsinthesector ofmaritimelogisticsbasedon
unified standard defined by market regulators and
shippingoperators.
5 DIGITALIZATIONOFTHEMARITIMESECTOR
ANDOTHERACTIONSTAKENBYGLOBAL
MARITIMECONTAINEROPERATORSAIMED
ATIMPROVINGTHEQUALITYOF
MEGALOGISTICSAREA
Nowadays, digitalization proves to be the main
challenge for global container operators. The cost of
collectinginformationontariffsandtransactioncosts
for the carriers is extremely important since global
logisticsmarketisstilldispersed. Thereisnopublicly
available standardised payment algorithm, and the
flow of transactional documents is too large.
AccordingtoMaerskLine, these
days,thesupplyof
frozengoodsfromEastAfricatoEuroperequiresthe
involvement of nearly 30 people and organizations,
and comprises over 200 various forms and types of
communication.Thedocumentationandbureaucracy
inthissituationconstituteevenonefifthofthetotal
costofcontainertransport.(DHL,2018and
ICS,2018)
As a result, the market is less competitive and
controlledbyserviceproviders,which,inturn,forces
therecipientofservicestolookforinformationfrom
various sources and compare the prices offered by
different service providers. If there is no common
information field, crucial data such as
details on
available space on ships of various container
operatorsisunknown.Itreducestheeffectivenessof
rendered services and raises their price in mega
logistics area. In this context, there is a real need to
introduce blockchain technology. (DHL, 2018 and
MDSTransmodal,2018)
Blockchain is a decentralized transactional
platform
in the dispersed network infrastructure. It
willfacilitatethemanagementandtra ckingoftensof
millions of containers worldwide through
digitalization of global supply chain processes. The
technology provides synchronized audit of all
activities in the global logistics chain in real time.
Suchaudithelpstobuildmutualtrustand
facilitates
taking decisions since all parties to the transaction
conductedwithintheglobalsupplychainhaveequal
access to the transaction‐related information.
(Alphaliner,2019)
Theintroductionofblockchaintechnology,evenat
the basic level, ensures security of data and
significantly eliminates the possibility to provide
incomplete or incorrect information in
the sector of
global logistics. Therefore, it is possible to track all
shipmentsinreal time, from thefirstshippingpoint
tothedeliverytotherecipient(fig.4).Thetraditional
documentation is replaced with smart contracts,
unnecessary agents are eliminated from the process,
and global logistics sector becomes much
more
decentralized. It helps not only container operators
but also all other participants in the global logistics
chain to reduce the probability of errors and
malpractice,andsavetimeandsignificantcoststhey
havetoincurtoday(billionsofeuro).(DHL,2019)
Global container shipping, like other modes of
transport,is
alsopartofthee‐commercesupplychain.
However,totheextentwhichremainsunclearinview
of the relatively small share and participation of
alternative modes of transport. Nevertheless, global
oceancontainershippingisexpectedtocontributeto
e‐commerceproducts,whichrestsonthebuildingof
inventoriesnear
consumptionmarkets.Forshipping,
in order to tap the trade potential arising from e‐
commerce, operators need to adapt the leverage
supplychainsolutions that aree‐commerce‐friendly.
Such actions are already taken by many leading
globalcontaineroperators.(ICS,2018)
So CMA CGM has been heavily investing in the
Chineselogisticsmarketforafewyears.In2018,the
company signed a cooperation agreement with
Alibaba – the largest e‐commerce platform in the
world. As a result, goods ordered via OneTouch
platform of the Chinese concern are transferred on
board the container ships of these companies
operating between
Asia and the Mediterranean, and
Asia and the Adriatic. Therefore, the Chinese
exporters can eliminate the involvement of
forwarders in the commodity transport from
Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantai to the
Mediterranean ports in Barcelona and Valencia as
534
well as Adriatic ports in Rijeka, Koper, Trieste and
Venice.(WSC,2018)
Meanwhile, Maersk established a global‐range
tradeplatformwithIBM,toacceleratethecommodity
flowsintheworldtradeandhelptosavebillionsof
dollars. In 2019, nearly 100 companies and
organizations joined the platform, comprising e.g.
ports in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Rotterdam,
customs offices in the Netherlands, Australia and
Perry as well as Pacific International Lines (PIL).
(Alphaliner,2019)
So these days, we shall admit that the most
important element in the sector of global maritime
transport, and in particular container shipping
necessarytounlock
thepotentialofdigitalizationisto
developinstrumentsabletoincreasethestandardsof
freight market operation in the global logistics area.
Theseinstruments,morecommonlyappliedandmore
and more efficient these days are digital trade
platforms based on blockchain technology, strongly
integrating global containerized transport markets
withglobalcommodity
markets.
However,theirdynamicsissignificantlyhindered
bycyber‐attacks,classifiedingeneral asransomware
attacks.Ransomwareisaformofmalicioussoftware
from the area of cryptovirology which may block
access to computer system or make it impossible to
read computer data (frequently through encrypting
techniques) and then demand
a ransom payment to
restorethesystem.In2017,suchattackwaslaunched
atthenumberoneglobalcontaineroperator,Maersk
Lineandcostca.300millionUSD.In2018,alsoCosco
ShippingLinessuffereda hacking attackandfeltits
consequences in the shipping and harbour sector.
(Alphaliner,2018,DHL,
2018)
Thisisa significantrisklimitingthepossibilitiesto
achieveresultsinfacilitatingthegloballogisticsarea
through more effective, ICT‐based integration of
commodity markets with global maritime container
markets. It is also likely that cyber‐crime will
postponethelaunchofunmannedshipsforatleasta
few years, which will halt the process of reducing
logistics costs and improving the quality of global
logisticsareaoperation.
6 CONCLUSIONS
Today,the container shipping industry is cautiously
embracing relevant technologies arising from
digitalization.Moreandmore,leadingglobalcarriers
and freight forwarders alike are taking measures to
digitalize internal
processes, develop integrated
informationtechnologyinfrastructuresandofferreal‐
time transparency on shipments. Digital start‐ups
such as Xeneta, Flexport and Kontainers are being
launched. These solutions aim to provide user‐
friendly online interfaces for shippers, while
facilitatingprocessesandenhancingtransparency.
Recent developments relating to blockcha in
technology aimed at
facilitating seaborne trade flow
withintheglobaltransportandlogisticsareaarealso
important. Other technologies of relevance to global
container market, world seaborne trade and global
logistics environment include robotics, artificial
inteligence and addtitive manufacturing or three‐
dimensional printing (3D). Some leading
representatives of the global container sector argue
that
digital technology could save $300 in customs
clearancecostsforeachconsignmentandthatitcould
potentiallygenerate$5.4millionsinsavingon each
shipmentassociatedwithashipthathasacapacityof
18,000TEUs
Ratequotingisanimportantcomponentofsupply
chains but it’s definitely not
the only one. As
mentioned previously (comp. fig. 3), customs
clearance and documentation, temporary
warehousing, final mile delivery and so much more
emphasizestheimportanceandneedforforwarders.
But at the same time, all of these components are
often done in silos and thus the processes become
inefficient.
Asa
result,digitizingfreightforwardingaswellas
therestoftheglobalsupplychainisveryimportant.
Oncebuilt,“thedigitalsupplynetwork” will offera
newdegreeofresiliencyandresponsivenessenabling
container shipping companies that get there first to
beatthecompetitionintheefforttoprovideshippers
with the most efficient and transparent service
delivery. Summing up, it can be concluded that,
digitization takes the beauty of the automated
quoting process and adds the accuracy, guaranteed
integratedtechnology to reduce process costs within
thegloballogisticssupplychains.Inaddition,addin
aprofessionalforwardingteamandlocal
connections
to assist with exceptions may eventually create a
digitalorvirtualforwarderabletocreativelychange
the global logistics area via enhancing its quality
standards.
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