143
1 INTRODUCTION
Researchers around the world are increasingly
pointingtheneedforabroaderviewofriskanalysis
in transport systems. Focused research, primarily
aimed at assessing the safety of transport, are not
sufficient anymore. Decision‐making processes
involvingtransportmanagers,requireaholisticview
oftherisksassociatedwithoperations.Therefore,itis
necessary to redefine a risk analysis frameworks,
focusing on issues such as how to understand and
describerisk,andhowtouseriskanalysisindecision
ma
king(Aven&Zio2014).
Inland navigation is seen as one of the safest
transportsystemsforfreight.Thenumberofrecorded
accidentsandbrea
kdownsinthisbranchoftransport
is considerably lower than the others, which
positively influences the safety assessment of
transport operations. However, this does not mean
thattherequiredreliabilityoftheprocessisensured.
This transport system is sensitive to other
distortions that must be taken into account when
organizing the carriage of goods. The specificit
y of
inlandwaterwaytransportmakesthemodelsofrisk
assessment dedicated to maritime transport,
unsuitable for the decision makers of inland
navigation.Forthisreasonitisnecessarytopreparea
holisticrangeofriskassessments,takingintoaccount
thespecificityofthistra
nsportsector.
Theaimofthisarticleistoproposeascopeofrisk
analysis for inland navigation and carry out a risk
assessment for cargo transportation on the Oder.
Therefore, in the first place, the most important
definitions regarding the discussed research issues
were presented. On the basis of lit
erature review
authors made a proposal for a procedure for risk
assessment, taking into account the specificity of
The Use of Linguistic Variables and the FMEA Analysis
in Risk Assessment in Inland Navigation
E.SkupieΕ„ξˆ±&A.Tubis
WroclawUniversityofScienceandTechnology,WrocΕ‚aw,Poland
ABSTRACT:Thepapercontinuesthestudyofthesameauthors,whopreviouslyproposedamethodofrisk
assessmentininlandnavigation.
Intheliteraturethereisagapintheresearchareaofariskmanagementoftransportationsystems,especially:
inlandnavigation.Theaut
horscarriedoutinterdisciplinaryresearchandpresentedtheresultsrelatedtothe
identificationofriskfactorspresentinthesystemsofinlandnavigation.
The paper presents inland navigation risk analysis, conducted using the linguistic variables and the FMEA
method, taking into account technical, economic and social aspects. The aim of the art
icle is to present a
procedurefortheassessmentofriskininlandwaterwaystransport,andcarryoutriskanalysisfortransport
companies. In paper the proposal of behavior scenarios, methods of preventing and minimizing effects of
pointedrisksareshown.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 12
Number 1
March 2018
DOI:10.12716/1001.12.01.16
144
inland waterways transport. At the end it was
presentedtheanalysisoftherisksforthehandlingof
afreightontheOderRiver.
2 LITERATUREREVIEW
There are many different views on what risk is and
how to define it (Aven 2012; Hampel 2006), how to
measure and describe
 it (Aven 2010, Kaplan 1997),
and how to use risk analysis in decision making
(Apostolakis2004,Aven2009).Overviewofthebasic
definitionoftheconceptofriskcanbefound,among
others,in(Aven2016).Accordingtothisreview,the
proposed definitions generally refer level of
uncertaintytothe
probabilityofanadverseeventand
its consequences. Therefore, in the research on risk
assessment in inland waterways transport described
in this paper the authors also adopted this point of
view.
The way one understands and describes risk
strongly influences the way risk is analysed and
hence it may have serious
 implications for risk
management and decision‐making (Aven 2016). The
authorsintheirstudyreliedontheguidelinesofISO
31000. According to it (PN‐ISO 2010) the risk
assessment is defined as a holistic process that
involves three stages of the procedure: (1) risk
identification,(2)riskanalysis,and
(3)evaluation of
risk.Thesestagesareincludedintheproposedmodel
of risk assessment for the transport process. Risk
analysismayusevariousquantitativeandqualitative
techniques, which are also described in the above
standard. In the proposed model of risk assessment
the FMEA technique was used. It is one
 of the risk
analysis techniques recommended by international
standards (Wang et al. 2012). Linguistic variables
were used to estimate the value of each parameter
usedfortheriskassessment(Burduk2012).
In the spotlight of the research conducted by the
authorsisprimarilyoperationalrisk.Itdecidesifthe
internal
organizational processes are sufficiently
effective, including immune to interference, that the
organization is able to pursue their economic goals
(ZawiΕ‚a‐NiedΕΊwiecki2012).Thereforesince the early
2000s,therehasbeenanincreasedfocusonwhathas
been defined as operational risk (Smallman 2000,
King2001,Ward2001). Such risks
relatetonegative
deviationsofperformanceduetohowthecompanyis
operated,ratherthanthewayitfinancesitsbusiness
(King2001,Jorion2006).Ithasbeenarguedthatthere
is a great need for improvement in the quality (as
regards tools and formal processes to manage
operationalrisk)
andscope(suchasidentification of
what risks to focus on) of Operational Risk
Management. Companies frequently deal with
operational risk issues as they occur, and often
following a crisis or catastrophic event (King 2001).
ORM is particularly important also for the
organizationinvolvedininlandwaterwaystransport
processes.
Conductedby
theauthorsanalysisofpublications
in the EBSCO database from the years 2006‐2016
dedicatedtotheriskmanagement,indicatesthatfora
water transportation, an extensive research are
exclusively carried out in the field of maritime
transport[including:(Bubbicoetal.2009,Brownetal.
2016,Yuebo&Xuefen
2014,Langardetal.2015).Itis
mostly a result of risk management has become a
majorpartofoperatingdecisionsforcompaniesinthe
maritimetransportationsectorandthusanimportant
researchdomain(NationalResearchCouncil2000).
Special mention in this case deserves an article
(Goerlandt&  Montewka2015),in
whichtheauthors
presentedadetailedreviewoftheliteraturedevoted
to the analysis of risk for maritime transport.
Overview publications of the period 2011‐2014
allowed the authors to define current problems
undertakeninresearchonriskinmaritimetransport.
Theseamongtheothersare:
ο€­ Determine the ship
collision probability and
frequencyinaseaarea(Goerlandt&Kujala2011,
Jeongetal.2012,Rasmussenetal.2012,Sumanet
al.2012,Wengetal.2012).
ο€­ Determine the risk of oil spill and hazardous
substances in a sea area  (Montewka et al. 2011,
Goerlandtetal.2011).
ο€­
Quantify effect of risk reduction measures on
accident risk in a waterway area (van Dorp &
Merrick2011).
Literature analysis indicates that the main
consideration of researchers in risk assessment in
inland navigation is focused on the assessment of
transportsafety.Examinedaspectsoftheexperiments
aremainlyconcernedwith
suchthreats as: accident,
collision,contact(strikinganyfixedorfloatingobjects
other than those included under collision or
grounding), grounding (being aground or
hitting/touching shore or sea bottom or underwater
objects),fire,explosion(Lietal.2012).Thefrequency
of these  threats in inland navigation is limited. It
should be
 a subject of risk analysis, but the main
aspects of risk assessment should focus on the
reliabilityofthewholeprocess.Tomakethispossible,
thescopeoftheassessmentshouldbesubordinatedto
the decision‐making process of participants in the
freight transport process. For this reason it is
necessary to define the area of analysis for risk
assessmentininlandwaterwaystransport,takinginto
accounttheholisticapproachproposedinISO31000.
Thismeansthattheidentificationofpotentialhazards
is done by the way of a process analysis, which
includes the analysis of used resources (elements at
the
inputtotheprocess),thecourseoftheprocessand
theexpectedfinalresult.
3 INLANDNAVIGATIONONODRA
WATERWAY
Odra Waterway links significant economic areas of
the country with Szczecin‐SwinoujΕ›cie seaports.
Althoughtheinlandnavigation inPoland,formany
decades, focused on the Oder, these connection not
fullyusesitspotential.
The Odra has a dominant role of the inland
navigation in Poland. One of factors of that
domination is the fact that the Oder is connected to
theWesternEuropewaterways.Inthestructureofthe
countryʹstransport,inlandwaterwaytransporthasa
negligible share. This
 share in recent years does not
exceed0.2%.
145
ThetransportationontheOdraRiverisdominated
by bulk cargo such as coal, ore, aggregates and
oversizedconstructions.OnthePolishwaterwaysthe
transportofcontainersisnotconducted.Thiskindof
loads are starting to dominate the waterways of
Europe. All branches of transportation reduce the
supplyofbulkcargo.Increasestheimport
anceofthe
containers transport. The transportation role of the
Odra Waterway in recent years is further
marginalized. Currently, transport on the Odra
focuses on the Lower Odra, relations Szczecinξˆ±β€ξˆ±
Western Europe.  The regular transport in relation
Gliwiceξˆ±β€ξˆ±Szczecin disappeared, as well as on the
canalized Odra. This is the result of degradat
ion of
waterwaysinPoland.
InrecentyearspoliticalenvironmentinPolandhas
changed. The Ministry Of Maritime Economy And
Inland Navigation has been initiated. Since that,
Poland has joined the ANG agreement, many legal
plans has been created and the inland navigation
societyhasgrownalot
.Thusitmaybeexpected,that
inanextfewyearssomestrategicinvestmentswillbe
made,andthe potentialofPolishwaterways will be
filled.
The future development of inland navigation in
Polandshouldfocusontheroleoftheauthoritiesin
modeling hydrotechnical conditions but the risk
connectedtoshipownersisalsoimport
ant.

4 PROCESSOFRISKASSESSMENTININLAND
WATERWAYSTRANSPORT
Requirements of the waterways of the int
ernational
importance (class IV and V) meets only 5,9 % of
length of waterways in Poland (214km). Other
waterwayscanbeclassifiedasregional(classI,IIand
II) (GUS 2015). The greater part of the inland
waterway fleet is decapit
alized and requires
restoration.Itsagefarexceedsthestandardperiodof
useandfurtherexploitationispossibleonlythanksto
the constant modernization. According to data from
the Central Statistical Office (GUS 2015) majority of
used pusher tugs (73%), almost half of the pushed
barges (48.7%) and all self‐propelled ba
rge were
produced in the period 1949‐1979. The products
carried in inland waterways transport on Oder
Waterwayaremostlycoal,aggregatesandoversized
goods.
Duetothefact,tocollisionsininlandnavigation
rarelyendswithseriousdamagesofashiporhealth
ofpeople,theyarealm
ostneverreported(toavoida
fine).Forthisreasonauthorsdecidednottotakeinto
account statistics devoted to reported inland
navigation collisions. Authors defined the risks
associated with transportation of cargo by inland
waterways based on research on risk assessment in
maritime transport and on the ba
sis of cooperation
with the Office of Inland Navigation in Wroclaw.
Authors analyzed both external and internal factors
that could disrupt the correct implementation of the
process. Based on the conducted analysis, authors
defined7basicriskgroups:
ο€­ Shipcollisions;
ο€­ Poornavigationconditions;
ο€­ Poor condition of infrastructure and loading
equipment;
ο€­ Poorcondit
ionofthefleet;
ο€­ Insufficientfinancialofboth:theshipownersand
authorities;
ο€­ ShortageofqualifiedHR;
ο€­ Lackofinterestinthisbranchoftransport.
It should be noted that only 3 identified groups
remainunderthecontrolofshipowners.Otherrisks
stemfromtheenvironmentinwhichtra
nsportationis
implemented.
The occurrence of the event belong to the one of
thegroupsmentionedabovemaycausedisturbances
ofvaryingstrengthofimpactontherealizationofthe
objective.Theobjectivedefinedforinlandwaterways
transportprocess istounproblematically accomplish
carriage by planned cost, qualit
y and logistics
parameters. The aim of Risk Management is to
prevent the possibilities of accruing undesirable
eventsorlimitthe consequences oftheiroccurrence.
Due to the lack  of the performed control by ship
ownersoverthemajorityofthefactorsgeneratingthe
risk, the main action ta
ken by them will, however,
reduce potential effects of the event. Therefore, the
proper identification of possible adverse events and
assessment of accompanying risks is particularly
important. The results of the proceedings constitute
maythenthebasisfortheplanningscenario,allowing
aflexibleresponsetothedisruption.
Theriskassessmentiscarriedoutinthreestages:
(1) hazard i
dentification; (2) an estimate of the
likelihood and impact of hazards; (3) the
identification of hazards, the level of risk is
unacceptablebypolicymakers.Detailedcourseofthe
proceduresisshowninFig.1.
Analysis of transport process
Event analysis
Identification of the causes/sources of the event occurrence
Determination of the
consequences of an
adverse event
occurrence
Estimating the RPN rate
Does
company have control
over risk factor?
Is RPN
rate at an acceptable
level?
Determination of the
possibility of an
adverse event
occurrence
Comparison of risk indicator with the acceptable level
Acceptance of
occurred risk factor
The implementation of
improvement actions aimed
at reducing the likelihood of
an adverse event occurrence
The implementation of
procedures for limiting the
consequences of the
adverse event occurrence.
NO
NO
YES
YES
Identification of adverse events
Determination of
ease of detection for
an adverse event
occurrence
Figure1.Riskassessmentprocedure
146
Duetothelargediversityofthestateofwaterways
in Poland, the presented risk assessment is
illustrative.
5 ADVERSEEVENTS
On the basis of the 6 groups of risk, adverse events
weredefined.Table1showsthoseevents.
Table1.Adverseeventsininlandwaterwaystransport
_______________________________________________
Shipcollisions
_______________________________________________
SC1 shipdamagedduetothecollisionwithothershipor
touristsbout;
SC2 shipdamagedandpeoplewoundedorkilleddueto
thecollisionwithothershiportouristsbout;
SC3 shipdamagedduetothecollisionwithinfrastructure
(bridge,riverbank,lockgates,riverbed);
SC4 shipdamagedandpeoplewoundedork
illeddueto
thecollisionwithinfrastructure(bridge,riverbank,
lockgates,riverbed);
SC5 shipsinkingduetothecollision;
SC6 infrastructuredamagedduetothecollision;
SC7 oilspillsduetothecollision;
_______________________________________________
Poornavigationconditions
_______________________________________________
NC1 closingofanavigationrouteduetotoohighdepthof
awaterway;
NC2 closingofanavigationrouteduetotoolowdepthofa
waterway;
NC3 closingofanavigationrouteduetoicecoverona
waterway;
NC4 nopossibilityoffullutilizationofshipscapacitydu
e
totoolowdepthofawaterway;
NC5 needofso‐calledwavesupportduetotoolowdepth
ofawaterway;
_______________________________________________
Poorconditionofinfrastructureandloadingequipment
_______________________________________________
IC1 longertimeoflockage;
IC2 closingofalock;
IC3 longertimeofloading;
IC4 nopossibilityofloadinginagivenplaceduetoalack
ofloadingequipment;
IC5 nopossibilityofloadinginagivenplaceduetoa
conditionofaloadingequipment.
_______________________________________________
Poorconditionofthefleet
_______________________________________________
FC1 longertimeofshipping;
FC2 nopossibilityofexploitation;
FC3 highcostsneededservice. 
_______________________________________________
Insufficientfinancialofboth:shipownersandauthorities
_______________________________________________
IF1 nopossibilityofshipexploitation;
IF2 nopossibilityofshipequippinginmodern
technology;
IF3 nopossibilityofinfrastructureexploitation.
_______________________________________________
ShortageofqualifiedHR
_______________________________________________
HR1 nopossibilityofsailingduetoalackofacrew; 
HR2 greaterprobabilityofadverseeventsduetolackof
experienceofacrewmembers;
HR3 highercostsofcrew.
_______________________________________________
Lackofinterestinthisbranchoftransport
_______________________________________________
LI1 lackofshippingorders;
LI2 moreinconvenienceofinlandwaterway
transportationdevelopment.
_______________________________________________
Theriskindexhas been defined for all identified
adv
erseeventsandexpressedinaccordancewiththe
FMEAprocess,asaproductof3parameters.
RPN
n=Pnβˆ™Enβˆ™Dn (1)
where:
RPN
n=riskindexofappearanceofnadverseevent,
P
n=possibilityofoccurrenceofnadverseevent,
E
n=Effectsofexposureonnadverseevent,
D
n=Easeofdetectionofnadverseevent.
Table2.Possibilityofoccurrenceleveldefinition.
_______________________________________________
Possibility Estimated Descriptionofthe
levelprobability probabilitylevel
_______________________________________________
1 HighThethreatoccurredinthelast
quarter
2‐3MediumThethreatoccurredinthelast
year
4‐5LowThethreatoccurredinthelast
twoyearsormore
_______________________________________________
Table3.Effectsofexposureleveldefinition. 
_______________________________________________
Exposure Recovery Descriptionoftheeffects
leveltimeofexposure
_______________________________________________
1 High Highfinanciallosses
2‐3MediumFinanciallosses,lossof
reputation
4‐5LowNofinancialloss,lossof
confidenceofclients
_______________________________________________
Table4.Easeofdetectionleveldefinition.
_______________________________________________
Detection Easeof  Descriptionoftheease
leveldetection ofdetection
_______________________________________________
1 LowIdentificationofaweekor
more
2‐3MediumIdentificationwithin2‐5days
4‐5HighIdentificationimmediatelyafter
theoccurrence
_______________________________________________
Table5.Riskindexevaluation.
_________________________
Event Pn En Dn RPNn
_________________________
SC1 4 2  4 32
SC2 4 1 4 16
SC3 4 2  4 32
SC4 4 1  4 16
SC5 4 1  4 16
SC6 4 1  4 16
SC7 4 1  4 16
NC1 2 4 2 16
NC2 2 4 2 16
NC3 2 4 2 16
NC4 2 4 4 16
NC5 2 4 2 16
IC1 2 4 2 16
IC2 4 2 2 16
IC3 2 4 4 32
IC4 2 4 4 32
IC5 4 2 2 16
FC1 4 4 2 32
FC2 4 2 2 16
FC3 4 2 2 16
IF14 2 2 16
IF22 2 2 8
IF34 2 2 16
HR1 4 1 1 4
HR2 2 2 1 4
HR3 2 2 1 4
LI1 2 2 1 4
LI2 2 4 1 8
_________________________
147
Basedonawidediscussionofexpertsconnectedto
inland navigation, present on gathering of
Commission on Oder in Lower Silesian (functionary
of administration of waterways, shipowners and
other of interests group) the value of needed
parameters were estimated with the use of the
linguisticassessment.
The possibility of occurrence
 of the event was
evaluatedonascale1‐5.Thisassessmentwasbased
onexpertsopinion.Effectsofexposureforacompany
(ashipowner)wereevaluatedona1‐5scale,andease
ofdetectionina1‐5scale.Detailedevaluationsystem
isshowninTables2,
3and4.
Analysis of the results indicates that the ship
owners particular attention should be focused on
theseevents,whichhavethelowestRPNindex.They
areinfacteventsdifficulttoidentify,whichincidence
is high, and at the same time are associated with
significant financial consequences for the
 company.
Theacceptablelevelofriskdeterminedonthebasisof
interviewswithexpertswassetatRPN>16.Thisisa
product of the quarter of the scale adopted for the
estimated three‐pointers (4 x 4 x 4). With such a
specific scale, only 5 of the
28 identified adverse
eventsisindicatorofriskatanacceptablelevel.The
remaining 23 events requires further analysis.
However,theyallcannotbetreatedinthesameway.
One can certainly distinguish among these two
groups of threats that the proceedings should be
varied. A first group of events, the
 events resulting
from the environment to which the owners have no
effect.In these cases, one can only take measures to
reduce the consequences of this adverse events. The
secondgrouparetheeventsonwhichtheshipowner
has a  direct impact. In these cases it is necessary to
take immediate preventive action. These events
should also be subject to constant monitoring by
management.
The adverse events, with unacceptable RPN,
resulting from factors not associated with ship
owners,from groups connected tonavigation
conditions (NC) and infrastructure conditions (IC)
shouldbelookedafterbytheauthoritiesresponsible
forthemaintenance
ofwaterways.Groupsofhuman
resource (HR) and lack of interest (LI) could be
influencedbythegovernment,startingwithaffecting
theeducationofchildren.
The other group of adverse events, with
unacceptable RPN is connected with ship owners.
Shipcollisions(SC)canbepreventedbytrainingofa
crew
and mitigated by hull construction and also
training.Problemswith moderntechnologyonboard
mentionedininsufficientfinancial(IF)andcondition
ofthefleet(FC)canbypartlysolvedbylooking for
foundsinEuropeanProjects.
All of the mentioned adverse events can be also
divided into two groups, depending on the
 kind of
actionsthatcouldbetaken:i)adverseeventsthatcan
be prevented, ii) adverse events that cannot be
prevented, but the effects could be limited. The
adverseeventscanalsobedividedinto:j)preventing
requires organizational  changes, jj) preventing
requiresinvestments.
6 BEHAVIORSCENARIOS
To describe above
examples, one can use the
behavioral scenario method. A few examples are
presentedfurtherinthetext.
TopreventtheadverseeventSC1 (ship damaged
duetothecollisionwithothershiportouristsbout),
the captain or the shipowner can introduce safety
procedures. This could be double checking the
parameters
 of navigation, limiting the speed during
maneuverings, the present of two crew members
duringhigh‐riskmaneuveringandsoon.
TheeffectsoftheadverseeventSC7(oilspillsdue
to the collision) can be limited by special onboard
equipment, quick procedure to report an
environmentalaccidentorthecrew
training.
TheadverseeventNC2 (closing of a navigation
route due to too low depth of a  waterway)  can be
prevented by both organizational changes and
investments.Thelowdepthofawaterwayismostly
causedbyadroughtand/oralackofprecipitation.It
canbesolvedbyariver
cascadingandconstructionof
retention tanks. Both of this solution require legal
actionsξˆ±β€“ξˆ±organizationalchangesandinvestments.
Topreventthe adverseeventHR1(nopossibility
of sailing due to a lack of a crew), organizational
changes are needed. A trained crew requires legal
actionsandtime,soitis
highlyimportanttoinitiate
properactionsinadvance(propertrainingofstudents
inhigh schoollasts4 years).Itislackof interestsin
inland navigation among young people, so
specialized high schools are closing. Training more
crew members would require advertising of sailors
profession. The training can be conducted also
 on a
ship.Itdoesnottakesomuchtime,butthatkindof
training it does not give a solid background and
professionalknowledge,onlypracticalskills.
7 CONCLUSIONS
Increasing competition in the freight market, the
increase in congestion on the roads, make inland
waterways transport companies increasingly
interested
in the techniques of risk analysis and
management.Duetothelackofexperienceandgood
practices in this sector, the ship owners are looking
for solutions model, which will be defined not only
the risk assessment techniques, but also areas that
shouldbeanalyzed.
In this paper, the authors presented
 inland
navigation risk analysis, conducted using the
linguistic variables and the FMEA method, taking
into account technical, economic and social aspects.
Theproposedsolutioninclude the specific nature of
inland navigation. Identification of the conditions of
the process, existing limitations and analysis of
actions taken in the next stages of
the process, a
sourceofinformationaboutpotentialadverseevents
andbehaviorscenarioswerepresented.
Next step in research on this topic will be to
proposeprocedurestopreventtheriskandminimize
thescaleofconsequencesforspecifictransportation.
148
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