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1 INTRODUCTION
A marine accident can have dire consequences such
as the loss of ships, and damage to marine
infrastructure and the environment. These accidents
haveledtoeconomiclossesandlongrecoverytimes.
In order to prevent marine accidents, safety
management is considered a significant issue in
industrialshipping
andshipnavigation.Ithas come
to light that there is a need to develop safety
evaluation methods to enhance safety during ship
navigation. Various navigational safety evaluation
methodshave,therefore,beenproposed.
Fujii (1971) and Macduff (1974) proposed a ship
collision probability model to determine a safe
navigational zone.
In these studies, the level of risk
was calculated using statistical analysis of a marine
accident and the traffic data. The obtained results
indicated the potential risk of the collision or
groundingof aship.It canbe helpful to distinguish
the hazard zones in port area. However, the
calculationresult
reliesonhistoricaldata.Whenusing
thistypeofmethodology,itisnotpossibletoreflect
realtimenavigationalsituations.
Ship domain models have been proposed in
research regarding safety evaluation models. A
certain area around a ship, such as a circular,
rectangular, elliptical, or polygonal shape, has been
proposed.
It is to remain clear of other ships. The
shape andsize of a ship’s domain is determined by
thecalculatedsafedistanceonthebasisofstatistical
analysisofmarinetrafficdata(Goodwin,1975;Fujii,
1971),fuzzylogic(Pietrzykowski, 2008,Wang,2010),
or questionnaire results and fuzzy logic
A New Risk Evaluation Model for Safety Management
on an Entire Ship Route
S.Hwang,E.Kobayashi&N.Wakabayashi
GraduateSchoolofMaritimeSciences,KobeUniversity,Japan
N.Im
DivisionofMarineTransportationSystem,MokpoMaritimeUniversity,Korea
ABSTRACT:Inthispaper,weintroduceanewriskevaluationmodelforevaluatingthenavigationsafetyzone
foranentireshiproute.Thismodelconsiders anewalgorithmtodeterminethenavigationalsafety zonein
realtime,andalsotakesthenavigation
officers’perceptionwhilenavigatingashipintoconsideration.Therisk
quantificationhasbeendevelopedusingaquestionnaireandincorporatedintothenewmodel.Asimulation
wascarriedoutfortheOsakabayareainordertoverifytheusefulnessoftheproposedmodel.Anewapproach
wasemployedtomonitor
thelevelofnavigationsafetyalongashiproute.Theentireshiprouteisdividedinto
smallsectionsasagriddedmatrix.Thelevelofnavigationsafetycanbequantifiedbymeansofasafetyindex
on the basis of the ship’s navigation data within a specified distance range. The results
show that the
comparison between risks identified for different sections across the entire ship route is easy, which helps
determinethenavigationalsafetyzonequickly.Thismodelisexpectedtobeabletoserveasanewtoolfor
managingsafetythroughoutanentireshiprouteareainrealtime
inordertosupporttheportsafetyauthority
orvesseltrafficservicecenter.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 10
Number 1
March 2016
DOI:10.12716/1001.10.01.10