International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 6
Number 4
December 2012
1 INTRODUCTION
The Juqueriquerê Catchment is the major in São
Paulo State (Brazil) North Coastline (Fig. 1). The
Juqueriquerê Waterway is a 4 km estuarine channel
used by small piers and docks. The entrance bar
doesn’t have any amelioration works and the boats
maneuvers are difficult and dangerous. Beyond
environmental impacts, the cost - effective
improvements consists to bar jetties calibration, this
solution means to talk about costs of 5 M €, or the
permanent maintenance with local dredging works,
which costs, in the long term of decades, will be the
same.
According to the IPCC forecasting, there is the
awareness that conditions of bathymetry, tides,
winds, currents and waves for next decades shall
have climate changes impacts. The project goal is to
overcome the contraposition that it emerges between
the defence against the hydraulic risk and the
management to preserve the environmental
protection for nautical purposes. The risk is
understood, in a qualitative way, as composed by
Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability (Kron 2008).
2 SOME HISTORY
Example of navigation possibilities in the waterway
was the dock operation of the English Lancashire
General Investments Company, owner of the Blue
Star Line Navigation Company. In the period 1927 -
1967, the “Fazenda dos Ingleses” (English Farm),
has sent the tropical fruits production to England.
The railway line of the farm had 120 km, with docks
and warehouses in the right bank of the estuary. The
Packing House, in the dock area, was considered the
Coastal Area Prone to Extreme Flood and
Erosion Events Induced by Climate Changes:
Study Case of Juqueriquere River Bar
Navigation, Caraguatatuba (Sao Paulo State),
Brazil
E. Arasaki
Escola Politécnica da USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil;Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais,
S.J.Campos, Brazil
P. Alfredini
Escola Politécnica da USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil; Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia, Sao Caetano do
Sul, Brazil
A. Pezzoli & M. Rosso
Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy
ABSTRACT: According to the IPCC, the forecast for the year 2100 is an increasing of global average
temperature, whose impacts in winds, waves, tides, currents and bathymetry will produce real risks of
extreme events due to climate changes. Juqueriquere River is Sao Paulo State (Brazil) North Coastline major
waterway. Due to minimum channel depths in the coastal bar, navigation is only possible for small leisure
crafts and fishing boats and some cargo barges during higher tidal levels. This study case has been evaluated
according to the relative sea level and wave climate scenarios forecasting, based on the meteorological
recognition patterns of the last decades data for tides and waves. The impact of climate changes is obtained
from this knowledge. The main goal of this paper is to have the initial conceptual description about the
impacts on the bar navigation conditions of Juqueriquere to obtain guidelines for master nautical plans.
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