47
1 INTRODUCTION
In developing maritime countries, the capacity of
harbors is in the development stage to increase the
capacity of ships served to berth. The port area of
Benoa Port in Bali, Indonesia, was planned to be
enlarged to receive several types of vessels, including
cruises, containers, tankers, and LNG carriers. The port
must evaluate the operation parameters for any vessel
to ensure the safety of ships entering and leaving the
harbor. In this research area, the assessment focused on
the berthing safety assessment of PCC assisted by
tugboats. Ships with main dimensions exceeding the
limit accepted by the port operation manual should be
evaluated for navigational safety to determine the
maximum ship dimension and environmental
conditions.
The ship's navigational safety is one of the essential
aspects of the assessment, besides the pier's structural
integrity. The maximum parameter of vessels, the
allowable hydro-meteorological conditions, and the
minimum tug assistance are the three conditions of
acceptance criteria for the safe operation of ships (S.
Gucma et al., 2022). Gucma et al. introduced two
methods of navigational safety assessment concerning
the change of the conditions, namely the relative
navigational risk (RNR), indicating the ratio of risk in
the planned conditions to the existing risk, and the
differences of navigational risk (DNR) presenting the
increasing risk due to change of conditions. These
methods provide the navigational safety indices of
RNR and DNR. However, the description of the
acceptance ratio for RNR and criteria or the accepted
maximum increasing risk for DNR depends on the
management decisions without proposing an
Navigational Safety Assessment in Benoa Channel
Based on Course over Ground and Trajectory
I.P.S. Asmara
1
, G.H. Putra
1
, A.Z. Arfianto
1
, K. B. Artana
2
& D.W. Handani
2
1
Shipbuilding Institute of Polytechnic Surabaya, Surabaya, Jawa Timur, Indonesia
2
Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
ABSTRACT: This study evaluated ship berthing safety in Benoa Port using AIS data and the MMG model. Firstly,
AIS data derived from the AIS receiver at Udayana University was analyzed based on the COG entropy method.
Secondly, the trajectory of the Passenger Ship Celebrity Solstice, the largest ship in the port with 317.19 meters
LOA and 36.9 meters width, was evaluated using the shortest distance to an obstacle based on the trajectory
plotted from the AIS data. Finally, a Pure Car Carrier was simulated based on the Mathematical Maneuvering
Group model to berth in the port to assess berthing safety in the Port. The COG entropy method is implemented
in three positions in the port channel, the course-changing, course-keeping, and turning basing areas. The study
shows that ship berthing safety using the COG entropy in all areas is at high risk. The shortest distances of the
Celebrity Solstice and the Pure Car Carrier were to the obstacle of shallow water, less than the distance
recommended by Innoe. Based on the maneuvering simulation results, the maximum wind and current speed for
the port operation is recommended.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 20
Number 1
March 2026
DOI: 10.12716/1001.20.01.06
48
acceptance parameter or quantitative level for a
recommendation.
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), recommended by
IMO for rule-making processes and risk management
tools (IMO, 2002 and IMO 2006), was comprehensively
applied for maneuvering assessment in waterways
(Gucma, 2018). The FSA consists of five steps: hazard
identification, risk assessment, risk control option,
cost-benefit analysis, and recommendations. That
study identified collisions with other vessels, collisions
to the pier, and grounding and predicted the
probability rate based on the statistical data. The
consequences were calculated based on the Permanent
International Association of Navigation Congresses
(PIANC) standard for allowable shipload and berthing
speed. The FSA was implemented partially up to the
risk matrix without a case study to implement the risk
option control and recommendations.
A specific navigational safety of grounding risk
assessment in a narrow waterway (Nermin
Hasanspahic et al., 2018) involved geometric, traffic,
meteorological, oceanological, ship design, equipment,
and human risk factors. The study divided a narrow
waterway with well-marked and reliable data on sea
depth into four categories based on the sea depth,
length, width, available bend, and obstacles in the
waterway. The study considered the effect of sea depth
on the maneuvering characteristic and the probability
rate by the waterway categories. The study categorized
stranding in the channel slope into the grounding. The
research did not apply the option control and
recommendations, and the risk matrix was calculated
using the qualitative method based on the four
probability and consequence classification rates. This
research did not determine the ship's maximum
parameter to be allowed to enter the narrow channel.
A numerical method of navigational safety of
offshore wind farms based on ship domain was
published (Grzegorz Rutkowski et al., 2023). The
numerical analysis required hydrometeorological data,
mathematical models, and operating data obtained
from maneuvering simulators. This method is
appropriate for evaluating navigational safety on a
narrow shipping route with different standards of the
ship's domain width in the port area, considering the
low speed over the ground and tugboat assistance.
Another study (S Gucma, 2021) assessed the
navigational risk of ships proceeding through a
fairway using the probabilistic-deterministic method at
a low wind speed of 2.5 m/s without accommodating
the current speed. The operation limit of a port
terminal is usually up to 15 knots or around 7.5 m/s.
Environmental disturbances may cause the vessel
to pass out and strand in a restricted or narrow fairway.
Investigating the correlation between ship behavior
and external disturbances of wind and current will
help the port operator manage the ship's berthing
operation and determine the corresponding risk
control options. For the large ship, in which the beam
is more than 23 m, the bigger the vessels, the higher the
effect of the wind on the speed over ground, and the
impact of current on the drift angle is more significant
(Y. Zhou et al., 2020).
The disturbances resulted in the uncertainty of the
ship's course over ground (COG), leading to the
possibility of grounding, stranding, or collision. The
collision risk assessment based on the entropy of COG
was implemented to cluster the risk ranking in several
legs of a port (H. Feng, 2022) without determining the
maximum limit of the disturbances. The maneuvering
simulation is required to evaluate a port's acceptance
criteria to serve the vessel's berthing. Several
maneuvering simulations have been published based
on the Mathematical Maneuvering Group (MMG),
including a pure car carrier in shallow water (Yasuo
Yoshimura, 1976), fishery training ship (Yasuo
Yoshimura, 2005), KRISO Very Large Crude Carrier
(Hironori et al., 2015), and KRISO Container Ship (Yo
Fukui et al., 2016).
The hydrodynamics derivative coefficient of ships
implemented in the maneuvering simulation was
predicted based on the ships' particular (O.F. Sukas,
2019). The use of the MMG model for simulation on
steady sailing of PCC under external wind and wave
disturbances has been implemented (H. Yasukawa,
2020). The effect of the drift angle on the rudder
coefficients should be considered for the drift angle
that is more than 45° (H. Yasukawa et al., 2021). Based
on the MMG model, the force and moment due to the
twin-propeller and rudder have also been published
(R. Okuda et al., 2022).
This study aims to analyze the ship berthing safety
in Benoa Port using the COG entropy method, the
safety of the Passenger Ship Celebrity Solstice in the
area based on the trajectory derived from AIS data, and
study the feasibility of PCC berthing in the port area.
2 METHODS
Figure 1 shows the three positions where the COG
entropy methods are implemented, including the
initial position of course-changing, course-keeping,
and turning maneuvers presented by position-1,
position-2, and position-3, respectively. The safe
distances of maneuvering trajectory to the obstacle of
shorelines, pier structures, and mooring ships
implemented to the passenger and PCC were adopted
from other research. The PIANC acceptance berthing
speed and berthing angle were used in this study.
Figure 1. The Channel of Benoa Port
49
2.1 AIS Data
The AIS data in the research area were collected from
the Udayana University shore-based station. The data
were transferred to the central database of ITS
Surabaya together with all data from shore-based
stations of the Indonesia AIS consortium members
located in Sumatera, Jawa, Bali, Lombok, and Sulawesi.
Data from October 27, 2023, until November 2, 2023,
was used in this study. The COG of ships in three initial
positions depicted in Figure 3 was analyzed to assess
the risk rank based on the COG entropy method. The
number of vessels captured in Pos-1 is 38 ships, in Pos-
2 is 42, and in Pos-3 is 46. The area of Pos-1, Pos-2, and
Pos-3 are restricted by the coordinates presented in
Table 1.
Table 1. The coordinates of the Positions
Pos-2
Latitude
-8.752160 to
-8.75397
Longitude
115.225456 to
115.2264
2.2 The Port and Environmental Data
The Port of Benoa is located between latitude -8°43'30"
to -8°43'47" (-8.725 to -8.72972) and longitude
115°10'30" to 115°13'30" (115.175 to 115.225) with a
narrow gap between Serangan Island and Benoa
Peninsula. The gap transformed into a channel due to
the sedimentation across the bay. The maximum
current speed, 0.758 m/s, is the ebb tide current flowing
out of the bay, and the tidal range is about 2.6 m (IGBS
Dharma, 2016). The maximum wind speed is 15 m/s,
and the dominant directions are Northeast, Southeast,
and Southwest (UJ Wisha, 2019). The width of the
channel is 200 m, and the diameter of the turning basin
is 400 m.
2.3 The COG Entropy-based risk ranking
The trajectories of ships maneuvering in the
waterway of a port area are distributed in a particular
area, namely the Potential Area of Water (PAW) for
maneuvering. The area depends on the initial
conditions of the maneuvering and environmental
conditions. The probability density function of the
initial conditions was evaluated based on the AIS data,
including the longitudes, latitudes, course over ground
(COG), speed over ground (SOG), and the heading (IPS
Asmara et al., 2013). The uncertainty level of the ship
course in a leg of the channel was measured using the
COG entropy, and the entropy was categorized into 5
clusters, as depicted in Table 2 (H. Feng et al., 2022).
Table 2. The cluster of COG entropy
Cluster
COG entropy
Risk level
Q1
Less than 9.28
High risk
Q2
9.28 – 9.65
Medium-high risk
Q3
9.65 – 10.02
Medium risk
Q4
10.02 – 10.85
Medium-low risk
Q5
More than 10.85
Low
The COG used for the initial condition of
maneuvering simulation was the COG in the medium
risk rank, representing the risk level as low as
reasonably practicable (ALARP). Equation 1 represents
the entropy of information on COG.
( )
( ) ( )
1 2 2
1
, , ,
n
n i i
i
H p p p p COG log p COG
=
=−
(1)
where n is the number of ships recorded by AIS in a leg
of the channel, pi(COG) is the probability of the i
th
COG
record, and log2pi(COG) means the COG entropy
offered by the i
th
record.
2.4 The Mathematical Maneuvering Group (MMG)
Model
The MMG model for this study consists of 3-DOF
motions, including surging, swaying, and yawing on
the 2D planar of the sea surface. The coordinates
system consists of the ship's local coordinates and the
sea's global coordinates, as seen in Figure 2.
Figure 2. The MMG Coordinate System
The local coordinate system is represented by x and
the y. The figure shows that x0 is the direction of the
ship in the global coordinate system with the heading,
of 0° and the y0 global direction is the heading,
of
90°. The vector of U is the Course over Ground (COG)
which is the gradient of the ship’s path at the center of
gravity, G. The dashed line shows the path. The drift
angle, β is the difference between the heading and
COG. The maneuvering equation and its
environmental disturbances are calculated based on
the previous paper (Asmara, 2024)
2.5 The Subject Ship Data
Table 3 shows the principal particulars of PCC. The
hydrodynamic derivatives of maneuvering were
calculated using an empirical equation (Asmara, 2015).
Table 3. Principal Particulars of PCC
PCC
Dimensions
Lpp (m)
180
B (m)
32.2
d (m)
8.2
∆ (tons)
26,650
Cb
0.548
DP (m)
5.7
AR (m
2
)
37.76
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
3.1 COG Entropy of Ships
Table 4 presents the statistical AIS data for the one
week in three initial areas. It also presents the
50
probability density function of SOG and COG in these
areas.
Table 4. The Normal Distribution of AIS
AIS Data
Pos-1
Pos-2
Pos-3
SOG (knots)
Mean
SD
7.33
1.87
7.06
1.68
5.92
3.29
COG
(degrees)
Mean
SD
255.74
9.75
301.89
3.50
297.16
7.93
The COG entropy in Pos-1 is less than 9.28,
indicating a high risk. In Pos-2, the entropy decreases
to 6.73 and reaches its lowest in Pos-3, as seen in Table
5. Table 4 shows the ships decreasing their speed in
Pos-3 to mitigate the risk. However, the COG entropy
method does not accommodate the speed as
implemented in the Environmental Stress method.
Table 5. COG Entropy in the Channel of Benoa Port
Pos-1
Pos-2
COG Entropy
7.94
6.73
3.2 Trajectory of the Cruise
The trajectory of the Celebrity Solstice Cruise in the
entering part of the channel is presented in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Bending Trajectory of the Cruise
Figure 4. Straight Trajectory of the Cruise
The vessel does a course-changing maneuver in
Pos-1, and the distance between the shallow water is
about 1B. The trajectory in this position is close to the
green buoy on the right side of the channel. In the
second part of the maneuvering, the cruise takes
course-keeping, as seen in Figure 4. In this part, the
trajectory is kept inside the channel.
Figure 5. Turning Maneuver and Berthing
Figure 5 shows the trajectory of the cruise in turning
basin and berthing in the port with the heading of 194⁰.
In the turning maneuver, a part of the vessel, about 1B,
is out of the basin boundary. The distance with the
shallow water is also about 1B or 0.18L. The distance
proposed by Inoue is 0.68L (Inoue, 1994).
3.3 Maneuvering Simulation of PCC
Based on the Regulation of Transportation Ministry of
Indonesia, a vessel with a length of 150 m to 250 m
should be assisted by a minimum of 2 tugboats with a
total capacity of a minimum of 65 tons bollard pull. The
maneuvering simulation was conducted in 3 scenarios,
as seen in Table 6.
Maneuvering simulation of PCC is conducted based
on the port area's maximum current and wind speed.
There are two tugboats to assist the maneuver in that
condition, each with a capacity of 55 tons of bollard
pull. The other scenarios are shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Maneuvering Scenarios by Disturbances
Scenario
Current (m/s)
Wind (m/s)
Tugboats (Bollard Pull)
1
0.758 to East
15.00 from West
2 x 55 tons
2
0.50 to East
10.00 from West
2 x 45 tons
3
0.250 to East
7.50 from West
2 x 35 tons
Figure 6 shows the results of the simulation
maneuvering on the channel as the trajectory of PCC.
Firstly, the ship can pass Position-1 to change course in
the bend of the channel. Secondly, the tugboats succeed
in assisting the vessel in keeping course after passing
through Position 2.
In the third maneuvering of scenario 1, the tugboats
fail to assist in turning in Position 3. The simulation
shows the vessel drifting in the basin, passing through
the buoy, and stranding in the shallow water area. The
time series of speed over ground, heading, and
position of the ship is shown in Figure 7. The stranding
51
speed is about 2 knots, as shown by the speed over the
ground at the end of maneuvering, represented by the
red curve.
Figure 6. Simulation Trajectory of Scenario-1
Figure 7. The Time Series of SOG, Heading, and Position of
PCC in Scenario-1
Figure 8. Simulation Trajectory of Scenario-2
Figures 8 and 9 show the results of the simulation
maneuvering for the second scenario. The maneuver
succeeded in Positions 1, 2, and 3. The tugboats failed
to assist the ship berthing in the port. The vessel
crossed a buoy and attacked the port by stern at about
1.5 knots.
Figure 9. The Time Series of SOG, Heading, and Position of
PCC in Scenario-2
Figure 10. Simulation Trajectory of Scenario-3
The results of the simulation maneuvering for the
third scenario, as seen in Figures 10 and 11, show the
ship succeeding in passing the channel, turning in the
basin, and berthing in the port. All trajectory parts lay
inside the channel and the basin's boundary. The
berthing speed, represented by red in Figure 11, is
0.1859 knots or about 0.09 m/s, which complies with the
PIANC requirement.
52
Figure 11. The Time Series of SOG, Heading, and Position of
PCC in Scenario-3
Tables 7, 8, and 9 show the elements of tugboats to
assist the PCC in scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In
scenario 1, the maneuvering consists of 8 steps,
including: 1) entering the channel, 2) turning to
starboard, 3) course keeping, 4) turning portside, 5)
reducing speed, 6) course correction, 7) turning
portside in the turning basin, and 8) try to avoid
drifting in the basin area.
Maneuvering in scenario 2 consists of 10 steps.
Steps 1 to 7 are the same as the procedure for scenario
1. In step 8, the tugboats avoid ships drifting out of the
turning basin. In step 9, the ship is towed astern to
approach the port but attacks a buoy. In step 10, the
tugboats try to reduce the astern speed and heading
correction but fail, and the ship collides with the port
by astern.
The maneuvering procedure in scenario 3 is the
same as procedure 2. In step 9, the tugboats avoid
collision with the buoy. In step 10, the reducing speed
and correcting heading are performed with the
assistance of the tugboats with a capacity of 35 tons of
bollard pull each.
Table 7. Tugboat Elements for Scenario 1
Step
Time
(s)
Engine
Status
Rudder
Angle
Astern Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Forward Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Force
Direction
Force
Direction
1
0 – 300
Slow
0°
-
-
60%
0°
2
300 –
800
Off
0°
20%
-160°
80%
20°
3
800 –
900
Off
0°
20%
180°
80%
0°
4
900 –
1035
Off
0°
60%
155°
85%
-25°
5
1035 –
1800
Off
0°
-
-
80%
0°
6
1800 –
2100
Off
0°
60%
-170°
40%
0°
7
2100 –
2500
Off
0°
80%
90°
20%
180°
8
2500 –
3600
Off
0°
100%
120°
100%
120°
Table 8. Tugboat Elements for Scenario 2
Step
Time
(s)
Engine
Status
Rudder
Angle
Astern Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Forward Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Force
Direction
Force
Direction
1
0 – 300
Slow
0°
-
-
60%
0°
2
300 –
800
Off
0°
20%
-155°
80%
25°
3
800 –
900
Off
0°
20%
180°
80%
0°
4
900 –
1035
Off
0°
60%
155°
85%
-25°
5
1035 –
1700
Off
0°
-
-
80%
0°
6
1700 –
1980
Off
0°
60%
-170°
40%
0°
7
1980 –
2300
Off
0°
80%
90°
20%
180°
8
2300 –
3500
Off
0°
100%
110°
100%
90°
9
3500 –
4000
Off
0°
100%
150°
100%
120°
10
4000 –
4800
Off
0°
40%
60°
85%
90°
Table 9. Tugboat Elements for Scenario 3
Step
Time
(s)
Engine
Status
Rudder
Angle
Astern Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Forward Tug
55 tons Bollard
Pull
Force
Direction
Force
Direction
1
0 – 250
Slow
0°
-
-
60%
0°
2
250 –
750
Off
0°
20%
-160°
80%
30°
3
750 –
900
Off
0°
20%
180°
80%
0°
4
900 –
1035
Off
0°
60%
160°
85%
-20°
5
1035 –
1800
Off
0°
20%
180°
80%
0°
6
1800 –
2700
Off
0°
80%
90°
60%
180°
7
2700 –
3600
Off
0°
85%
150°
85%
100°
8
3600 –
4100
Off
0°
85%
0°
100%
90°
9
4100 –
4500
Off
0°
80%
90°
100%
90°
10
4500 –
4800
Off
0°
80%
-90°
100%
90°
4 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
In this study, the authors have analyzed AIS data using
the COG entropy method and the closest distance to
the obstacle. The maneuvering simulation based on the
MMG model has been implemented, and the
maneuvering results align with those of the previous
two methods. The first two methods have been
implemented in 3 positions of the Benoa channel. Both
of the methods resulted in a relevant level of risk
assessment. The first method concludes that the
navigational safety index of ships in 3 positions of
Benoa is at a high-risk level. The result of the second
method did not comply with the minimum distance
requirement. The maneuvering simulation in the third
method confirmed the results of the first and the
second method. The trajectory of the subject ship in
scenario 1 with the maximum wind and current speed
and in scenario 2 failed. Based on the study, using the
three methods for maximum environmental
disturbances in a port for safe operation can be
53
recommended. The next step of this study is to propose
the MMG model to determine the optimum COG and
SOG in a particular position of maneuvering in a
channel.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to deliver acknowledgments to Politeknik
Perkapalan Negeri Surabaya to accomplish and publish this
study. The authors also wish to acknowledge the AIS
Consortium's cooperation in this research.
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