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1 INTRODUCTION
The European ATM Network´s performance has
reached unprecedented levels over the past decade,
mainly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the
COVID-19 pandemic in recent years. The overall
positive trend in air traffic growth (average daily
traffic) ranged from 0.9% to 4.4%, not considering the
pandemic period [1]. In 2010, the highest ATFM delay
per flight recorded 2.9 minutes, with 2 minutes of this
delay attributed to en-route delay. This delay
represented an 82% increase compared to 2009 [1]. The
overall average delay in 2010 was cumulatively more
than 51% higher compared to 2005, highlighting a long-
term negative trend in air traffic management
efficiency [1]. This increase could be attributed to
various factors, including higher air traffic volumes,
capacity constraints on controlled routes, and technical
or organizational issues in air transport.
Air transport has an undeniable impact on
countries' economies. Two primary measures of the
aviation sector´s impact are the number of jobs it
creates and its contribution to the gross domestic
product (GDP), generated by direct aviation (ANSPs,
manufacturers, airlines, airports, on-site business), or
additional activities as supply chain and tourism
activities [5]. Aviation drives global trade and
Air Traffic Management in Europe – History
and Challenges Ahead
N. Gédrová, M. Džunda & L. Melníková
Technical University of Košice, Košice, Slovakia
ABSTRACT: The European Air Traffic Management network has shown remarkable growth over the past decade,
driven by increased air traffic, population purchasing power, and sector advancements. However, the sector faces
challenges, resulting in rising delays and capacity constraints, which have impacted its efficiency. The paper
analyses the growth and actual status of air traffic management in Europe. The study draws on historical and
forecasted data to assess actual status and future challenges, using information sourced from Operations reports,
Aviation Outlook reports and economic forecasts. The aviation sector plays a vital role in driving economic
growth, creating jobs, and supporting global trade, but is highly sensitive to geopolitical situations and trade
tensions. In recent years, volumes have been on unprecedented levels. Looking ahead, the European ATM market
is projected to continue growing, thus long–term investments and strategic planning will be essential to address
potential inefficiency. The growth of European flights is heavily influenced by the maximum capacity available
at airports. Forecasts indicate up to million flights may be unaccommodated in 2050 [2]. Despite the current
slowdown, the aviation sector is still anticipated to experience significant growth, although it will face ongoing
challenges related to capacity limitations, uncertainty, and evolving market conditions. Key factors contributing
to ATFM delays within the scope of air traffic management are ATC staffing, ATC capacity and airport capacity.
The only way to overcome capacity limitations is improved navigation infrastructure, which can increase the
ability to accommodate a larger number of flights.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 19
Number 2
June 2025
DOI: 10.12716/1001.19.02.28
564
investment, enhances labor and capital productivity,
and accelerates innovation. By facilitating the
movement of goods, the air transport industry
contributes to better economic outcomes through
catalytic collaboration and increased specialization.
Aviation supports the creation of an efficient and
dynamic supply chain while driving the expansion of
e-commerce. During a crisis and unstable geopolitical
situations, air cargo delivers humanitarian aid and
emergency relief. Air networks are essential for
unlocking economic growth potential, empowering
industries nationwide to participate in dynamic
business activities. The scope of international and
domestic connectivity serves as both a catalyst and a
driver for generating and distributing economic
benefits.
The Air Traffic Management Market in Europe is
projected to experience significant growth, driven by
rising demand for air travel and an increase in aircraft
acquisitions by airlines in the region. The introduction
of new routes and airport expansion drives the
demand for advanced air traffic management systems.
Eurocontrol initiatives to develop and implement
comprehensive air traffic management strategies.
However, the market´s long-term trajectory may
encounter challenges stemming from operational
issues and unforeseen factors. For the air transport
market, it is essential to consider long-term forecasts
due to the necessary long-term investments (ATM
systems, new aircraft types, infrastructure, etc.).
Considering the goal of achieving sustainable
aviation, the Eurocontrol Aviation Outlook [2] has
considered factors such as the deployment of electric
and hydrogen-powered aircraft or the increasing use of
sustainable aviation fuels. Economic benefits of using
green fuels are undeniable, as well as improved
environmental performance and related increased
efficiency, not only in the aviation sector. Economic
model and potential benefits are described in the work
[6]. Suitable development of transport is one of the EU's
goals for sustainable development on a global scale. A
key approach to reducing environmental impact in
terms of sustainable transport development is cargo
consolidation [8].
While the capacity of some European airports is
considerably limited, sustainability is becoming a
significant factor influencing future predictions.
Similarly, it takes into account the impact of COVID-
19, even though there has been a return to pre-
pandemic levels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
emphasizes the importance of considering energy price
inflation and economic cycles.
2 IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST
Flights in the ECAC region doubled from 5 to 10
million a year, averaging 4% growth per year in the 20-
year period from 1988 to 2007, thanks to the
development of low-cost carriers, a single market, and
trade expansion [2]. The following years were marked
by worldwide economic crises, such as the global
financial crisis (United States, 2007 – 2008) and the
Eurozone crisis (2009 – 2012), resulting in a debt crisis
that continued until 2013. The years 2017 and 2018 saw
a solid rate increase of around 4% [2]. The growth rate
eroded in 2019 when the largest European economies
faced trade tensions, the slowdown in emerging
markets, stagnation in manufacturing areas,
uncertainty related to Brexit, and geopolitical tensions.
Other events, such as the bankruptcies of some airlines
or Boeing 737 MAX groundings, had a direct impact on
the aviation market. The last growth rate before the
pandemic represented +0,9% (2019) [1]. The COVID-19
pandemic had a profound effect on aviation and air
traffic in 2020. By early March, the disruption reached
unprecedented levels, compounded by ongoing travel
restrictions [2].
Numerous European countries implemented
stringent travel bans, border closures, and lockdowns,
resulting in a 41.1% decline in flight volumes compared
to 2019 [1]. The rollout of a vaccination campaign in
Europe, along with the introduction of the green travel
certificate, accelerated the region's recovery. The
recovery from the pandemic continued throughout
2022, with 9.3 million flights, accounting for 83% of the
2019 flight volume [2]. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
and its impact on airspace led to significant deviations
from standard flight routes. European aviation
recovery continued throughout 2023, with a reported
growth of 9.9% compared to 2022. However, the
Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to pose
significant challenges [1] [2].
Historical annual growth rates averaged 4%
between 1960 and 2009 but slowed to approximately
3% when accounting for the impact of the global
financial crisis over the extended period from 1960 to
2019 [2]. As stated, the contribution to GDP (Gross
Domestic Product) is one of the factors that indicates
transport´s impact on the economy. Economic growth
is the most important factor influencing the growth of
air transport. Based on historical data, we can see the
correlation between GDP growth and IFR growth,
demand for air travel followed a decline, and the
growth of economic cycles. Eurocontrol Aviation
Outlook 2050 provides 3 scenarios for future growth.
The base and the most likely scenario predict 15.4
million flights in 2050, with an average growth of 1.6%
yearly, representing an increase of 52% (compared to
2023) [2].
Table 1. ECAC – IFR movements forecast [2]
ECAC
2023
2050
2050/2019
Total
(million)
Avg. Daily
(thousands)
Total
(million)
Avg. daily
(thousands)
Extra
flights/day
(thousands)
Total
growth
AAGR
High
scenario
10.1
27.8
18.0
49.4
5.9
+78%
+2.2%
Base
scenario
15.4
42.1
0.9
+52%
+1.6%
Low
scenario
12.2
35.5
0.9
+20%
+0.7%
One of the most important factors that has a
significant impact on flight growth is the maximum
capacity available at several airports. Due to the
COVID-19 pandemic and related uncertainty, several
airports have revised their previous forecasts, focusing
on short-term rather than long-term forecasts. Flight
growth in Europe is projected to lag 14 years behind
the long-term forecast published before the COVID-19
pandemic. Despite the current slowdown, significant
growth is still anticipated, though challenges remain
[2].
565
Now, predictions in the base scenario expect
exceeded capacity by 1.1 million non-accommodated
flights in 2050, representing 7% of total demand. In the
high scenario, unaccommodated flights climbed to 3
million flights, which represents 14% of the total
demand that would not be fulfilled [2]. The most likely
impacted airports would be those in Norway, Portugal,
Sweden, and the UK, representing a gap of less than
50,000 flights unaccommodated; the Netherlands with
less than 200,000 flights; and Spain and Turkey with
more than 200,000 unaccommodated flights. The base
scenario counts capacity gaps in nine countries, while
the high scenario predicts sixteen countries [2].
3 ECONOMIC FORECAST
The European Union forecasts a 1,5% GDP growth,
driven by rising consumption and a rebound in
investment following the 2024 contraction. In 2026,
economic activity is expected to grow by 1,8%, driven
by sustained demand expansion. The euro area is
projected to follow a similar trend, with growth
reaching 1,3% (2025) and 1,6% (2026) [3]. The European
Union has been particularly impacted by the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, which drove up energy prices.
While the escalating conflict in the Middle East has had
a limited effect so far, risks of global oil and gas supply
disruptions are rising again. Meanwhile, sluggish
innovation and weak business dynamism, combined
with aggressive financial tightening, resulted in
stagnation in the period 2022 – 2023 [3].
The labour market generated jobs for 750K workers
and continued to recover; monetary policy ensured a
decline in inflation. However, economic forecast
remains uncertain, Russia´s protracted war and the
Middle East conflict continue vulnerability to energy
security. As measured by the European Commission´s
consumer survey, high inflation continues to influence
consumer behavior. Although inflation has decreased
significantly from October 2022, when it peaked at
11,5%, the cost of living remains elevated, especially
affecting low–income consumers [3].
The global trade policy environment and
interconnectedness of economies have been
deteriorating in the last fifteen years, including the
Global Financial Crisis, geopolitical tensions, China´s
integration into the global manufacturing system,
protectionist trade policies, the double shock of the
energy crisis, and the pandemic. Despite these facts,
the global export of services and goods kept its share of
GDP at levels comparable to the pre-Global Financial
Crisis peak. With the arrival of the new US
government, the US administration imposed 25%
tariffs on EU imports of industrial steel and aluminium
and their derivative products. In response, the EU
Commission has launched countermeasures on US
imports. Total bilateral trade in 2023 represented 851€
billion - 503€ billion of goods exported to the US and
347€ billion imported, meaning a surplus of 157€
billion for the EU [3] [4].
However, bilateral trade in services was worth 746€
billion; the EU imported 427€ billion of services while
exporting 319€ billion to the US, resulting in a deficit of
109€ billion for the EU. The EU Commission responded
in two steps, allowing the suspension of the existing
2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US to
expire on April 1st, which targets a range of products
(representing 8€ billion), and a new package of
countermeasures on exports worth 18€ billion[3] [4]. In
total, countermeasures could target US goods exports
valued at up to €26 billion, aligning with the economic
impact of the US tariffs [4]. Unstable geopolitical
situation, trade tensions, and war situation from last
years showed how much global economies rely on the
condition of transport. Not only US taxes, but also
sanctions adopted by the European Union towards
Russia and related limited gas and oil supplies, closure
of Ukrainian airspace, showed the need for protection
of critical infrastructure, and backup supply chain
directions. The approach to the analysis of transport´s
critical elements is reviewed in the work [7].
As we stated, the airports most impacted according
to the most probable base scenario would be airports in
Turkey and the Netherlands. The measurement of
transport´s impact on the economy can be performed
using various methods. Key indicators for
measurements are the contribution to the gross
domestic product and the number of jobs generated.
The economic impact of air transport in Turkey
represents USD 14.3 billion of economic output
(247,300 people directly employed in aviation), which
is equal to 1.3% of GDP. Total contribution to GDP is
USD 82.4 billion (7.4% of GDP), including wider
supply chain, tourism activities, and employee
spending [5].
Aviation plays a crucial role in supply chain
activities and e-commerce growth - in 2023 there were
transported 1.7 million tonnes of air cargo. In the
Netherlands, aviation directly employs 111,000 people,
contributing USD 10.5 billion to GDP, equaling 0.9% of
total GDP. The total contribution represents USD 39.9
billion of economic output (3.6% of GDP). Air cargo
transported 1.4 million tonnes in 2023, supporting
import and export volumes. For both countries, Europe
is the largest international market for passenger flows.
The cumulative growth of O-D international passenger
departures over the last decades represents +31.0%
from the Netherlands and 67.9% from Turkey [5].
3.1 ATFM delay evolution overview
Based on historical data, the largest ATFM delay per
flight was recorded in 2010 (2,9 min). This overall delay
represents an increase of 82% compared to 2009 and a
cumulative deviation of more than 51% compared to
2005. Another significant increase occurred in 2018
(2.33 min) with a 97% increase of en-route delay (1.73
min) [1]. A paradox is that the traffic volume was 13%
lower than in the previous year. 1.3 million flights were
delayed, with a third of them having a delay of more
than 15 minutes. The main causes of delays on the
route were ATC capacity, weather, and ATC human
resources. Despite a slight improvement in 2019, the
level of overall delay remained high [1].
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Figure 1. ATFM delay and average daily traffic evolution
(work of authors)
The biggest contributors to route delays between
2010 and 2014 were en-route ATC capacity and airport
weather in the case of airport/TMA ATFM delays.
Between 2015 and 2023, the biggest contributors
remained en-route ATC capacity, en-route weather,
airport weather, en-route ATC staffing, and airport
capacity, as shown in the distribution below. Based on
the presented analyses, we can say that the main
contributors to ATFM delays, which we can influence
within air traffic, are ATC capacity, ATC human
resources, and airport infrastructure.
Figure 2. Distribution of ATFM delay causes (work of
authors)
3.2 Average daily airport delay evolution
Analysing the top 5 ranking for average delay traffic
among the airports over the past years, we can observe
4 airports that regularly appear, with only their
ranking positions changing. Airports with the main
average daily traffic are Istanbul (LTFJ), Amsterdam
Schiphol (EHAM), London Heathrow (EGLL),
Frankfurt (EDDF), and Paris Charles de Gaulle (LFPG).
The top rankings for the highest daily average airport
delays are assigned to Amsterdam Schiphol (EHAM).
Based on historical data, Amsterdam Schiphol
(EHAM) appears in total of 6 times over the period
2013 – 2023 in the top position with the highest average
delay traffic, as shown in the rating [1].
Figure 3. Amsterdam/Schipol ranking for average daily
traffic 2021-2023 (work of authors)
The next highest positions were taken by airports in
regions of Turkey, followed by Lisbon, Portugal, and
the UK airports, Gatwick and Heathrow.
Amsterdam Schiphol Airport ranked in 1st position
for average daily delay for almost 7 consecutive years.
The main contributors to the en route average delay per
flight in the summer period in recent years were ATC
capacity, followed by weather and special events.
Table 2. Average daily delay rating – Airports 2014 – 2023
(work of authors)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Amsterdam
Schiphol (EHAM)
2
3
3
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
Athens
International /
Eleftherios
Venizelos (LGAV)
5
1
5
5
Barcelona (LEBL)
2
Berlin International
(EDDB)
5
Franfurt/Main
(EDDF)
5
Iraklion Nikos
Kazantzakis (LGIR)
3
Istanbul Sabiha
Gökcen (LTFJ)
1
2
Istanbul/Ataturk
(LTBA)
3
2
2
3
5
Istanbul/Sabiha
Gökcen (LTFJ)
1
Lisbon (LPPT)
3
2
3
2
2
London Gatwick
(EGKK)
5
5
4
3
3
London/Heathrow
(EGLL)
1
4
4
4
4
3
2
Madrid (LEMD)
4
Paris / Orly (LFPO)
5
Paris Orly (LFPO)
4
4
Porto (LPPR)
4
Zurich (LSZH)
4
5
4 NEW TRENDS IN ATM
As stated, ATC capacity, ATC staff, and airport
infrastructure are significant challenges for European
air traffic management nowadays. Several measures
have been implemented and are ongoing for increasing
efficiency. Navigation infrastructure and emerging
technologies are crucial for enhancing the already
constrained airspace capacity. New approaches are
described in the works [9] [11].
4.1 A – CDM Airport collaborative decision making
A – CDM was developed based on the American
concept introduced in 1998 to decrease capacity
reductions. In experimental phases, delays were
reduced by 15%. European A–CDM trials were
conducted in 2000 at several airports to develop the
concept for Europe. Partners can thus optimize their
decisions in coordination with other partners to
improve traffic predictability and situational
awareness, taking into account constraints,
preferences, current and forecasted conditions. Process
is supported by the exchange of timely information
along with tailored procedures, tools, and
mechanisms. The core element of the concept is
Information sharing between CDM partners, which is
the foundation for other elements, such as turn - round
process, tracking the flight from planning to take off,
variable taxi time calculation, management of flight
updates, pre-departure sequence [12] [13].
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In 2024, in total of 33 airports were connected to the
Network Manager Operations Centre (NMOC), via
departure planning information (DPI). For smaller
airports, which do not suffer from remarkable delays,
and there is no justification for full CDM integration, is
the possibility for Advanced ATC TWR, which shares
a set of CDM information. Both of them, Advanced
ATC TWR and A-CDM, account for 49.2 % of
departure information (DPI) received by NMOC [12]
[13].
Figure 4 A-CDM implementation (Power BI, Eurocontrol)
[12]
To increase regional airport coverage and
connectivity, the Regional Airport Connectivity
concept was developed to enhance regional airport
coverage and connectivity, aiming to expand the
coverage of departing flights within the ECAC area to
more than 90%. Using the set of A-CDM measures in
combination with ADS-B infrastructure is the concept
supporting tactical planning and situational
awareness.
4.2 GBAS - Ground Based Augmentation System
To provide an alternative to the Instrument Landing
System ILS, the GBAS system was introduced.
Reference antennas of the system receive signals from
GPS satellites, which secure more accurate position
information. The ground facility also monitors general
GPS satellite performance. The operational and
economic benefits of the Ground-Based Augmentation
System (GBAS) were empirically proven in 2014
during a noise mitigation study conducted at Frankfurt
Airport. The configuration increased the glide slope
angle of 3.0°. A further technological advancement was
realized in 2022 through the SESAR DREAMS project.
The GBAS installation at Frankfurt was upgraded to
support CAT II operational capability, expanding the
system’s flexibility to accommodate up to 48 distinct
approach path configurations. The upgrade also
allowed for an increase in glide slope angles up to 3.2°,
further enhancing noise abatement and operational
efficiency. The GBAS system brings more flexible flight
paths, greater precision guidance, and the elimination
of flight cancellations due to unsuitable weather
conditions, which are, as shown previously, among the
top three reasons for ATFM delays. The accuracy of the
systems is the subject of several studies, including [10]
[14].
5 DISCUSSION
The main drivers of Air Traffic Flow Management
delays addressable within the air traffic management
system are ATC staffing, ATC capacity, and airport
infrastructure. Enhancing navigation infrastructure
and integrating emerging technologies are essential for
alleviating the already strained airspace capacity.
Technologies as Airport Collaborative Decision
Making and ADS–B support enhanced tactical
planning and situational awareness. Major
technological advances in digitalization,
communication, and satellite-based systems have
paved the way for transformative innovations in ATM.
These developments include the centralization of
specific services, the implementation of remote and
virtual towers, and the concept of sector-less ATM
goals. As the future moves towards 4D trajectory
management, seamless airspace will become crucial.
To achieve this goal, there is also a need for a change in
the monopoly position of air navigation service
providers and a focus on their liberalization and
commercialization. Regulation (EU) No 391/20103
states the option of terminal services being subject to
market conditions. For the en route services, there is no
legislative framework allowing for commercial
provision, due to the problematic transfer of
infrastructure and concerns related to national
security.
6 CONCLUSIONS
The European ATM Network has experienced
remarkable performance over the past decade,
significantly impacted by the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. Air transport
plays a vital role in driving economic growth and
contributing to gross domestic product through direct
and indirect activities. It enhances global trade, boosts
productivity, and fosters innovation, ultimately
leading to better economic outcomes. Even the
European air traffic faced significant disruptions;
future forecasts predict 15.4 million flights in 2050,
with an average growth of 1.6%, meaning an increase
of 52%, according to the base scenario. While the air
traffic is poised for growth, driven by rising air travel
demand and aircraft acquisitions, challenges like
operational issues, capacity constraints, geopolitical
tensions, trade uncertainties, and unforeseen events
can impact its long-term trajectory. Predictions for 2050
reflect a potential shortfall of 1.1 million non-
accommodated flights, meaning 7% of total demand.
While challenges like capacity gaps persist, especially
in several European countries, the aviation sector is still
anticipated to experience substantial growth.
However, global economic, geopolitical tensions and
protectionist policies have affected the global trade
environment, which may impact the aviation sector. In
conclusion, the primary contributors to ATFM delays,
which can be addressed within the air traffic
management system, include ATC human resources,
ATC capacity, and airport infrastructure. The most
impacted, according to the base scenario, are projected
to be airports in the Netherlands and Turkey, which
also corresponds with the average daily delay rating in
the period 2014 – 2023. Particularly, the airport
568
Amsterdam Schiphol is expected to be the most
impacted by capacity issues according to the base
scenario. Amsterdam has consistently ranked among
the top airports with the highest average daily delays.
To address these issues, several measures, including
the implementation of A-CDM, have been introduced
to enhance efficiency.
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