HomePage
 




 


 

ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
 

 

 

Editor-in-Chief

Associate Editor
Tomasz Neumann
 

Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
www http://www.transnav.eu
e-mail transnav@am.gdynia.pl
Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015
1 Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 University of Turku, Kotka, Finland
ABSTRACT: The paper presents a model for estimating the number of ship-ship collisions for future traffic scenarios. The modeling is based on an approach where the number of collisions in an area is estimated as a product of the number collision candidates, i.e. the number of collisions of two ships, if no evasive maneuvers were made, and a causation probability describing the probability of making no evasive maneuvers. However, the number of collisions is presented as a combination of binomially distributed random variables. The model is applied for the assessment of tanker collision frequency in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. 2015 traffic is modeled as three alternative scenarios each having a certain probability of occurrence. The number of collisions can be presented either for each scenario, or as an estimate including the uncertainty in future marine traffic development by taking into account all scenarios and their occurrence probabilities.
REFERENCES
[DNV] Det Norske Veritas. 2003. Formal Safety Assessment – Large Passenger Ships, ANNEX II.
[DNV] Det Norske Veritas. 2006. Formal Safety Assessment of Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS). Technical Report No. 2005-1565, rev. 01.
Friis-Hansen, P & Simonsen, B.C. 2002. GRACAT: software for grounding and collision risk analysis. Marine Structures 15(4): 383-401.
Fujii, Y. & Shiobara, R. 1971. The Analysis of Traffic Accidents. Journal of Navigation 24 (4): 534-543.
Goerlandt, F. & Kujala, P. 2011. Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96(1): 91-107.
Hassler, B. 2010. Global regimes, regional adaptation; environmental safety in Baltic Sea oil transportation. Maritime Policy & Management Vol. 37, No. 5, 489-503.
Hänninen, M. & Ylitalo, J. 2010. Estimating ship-ship collision probability in the Gulf of Finland. 5th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships ICCGS 2010, 14.-16. June 2010, Espoo, Finland. TKK-AM-16: 250-255.
Hänninen, M. & Kujala, P. in prep. Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model.
[IALA]. International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities. 2009. IALA Recommendation O-134 on the IALA Risk Management Tool for Ports and Restricted Waterways, Edition 2.
[IMO] International Maritime Organization. 2006. Formal Safety Assessment. Consideration on Utilization of Bayesian Network at Step 3 of FSA, Maritime Safety Committee 81st Session, MSC 81/18/1.
Jensen, F.V. & Nielsen, T.D. 2007. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. New York: Springer.
Kujala, P., Hänninen, M., Arola, T. & Ylitalo J. 2009. Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94(8): 1349-1357.
Kuronen, J., Helminen, R., Lehikoinen, A. & Tapaninen, U. 2008. Maritime Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015. Publications from the Centre for Maritime Studies, A 45. University of Turku.
Kuronen, J., Lehikoinen, A. & Tapaninen, U. 2009. Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and three alternative scenarios for 2015. International Association of Maritime Economists Conference IAME 2009 Conference, 24-26 June 2009 Copenhagen Denmark.
Lehikoinen, A., Luoma, E., Hänninen, M. & Kuronen J. in prep. Bayesian influence diagram as integrative modeling tools in cross-disciplinary and multi-risk decision analysis of maritime oil transportation.
Macduff, T. 1974. The probability of vessel collisions. Ocean Industry 9(9): 144–148.
Ministry of Transport and Communications Finland 2010. Baltic Sea Maritime Safety Programme. Publications of the Ministry of Transport and Communications 18/2009.
Montewka, J., Krata, P. & Kujala, P. 2010a. Elements of risk analysis for collision and grounding of oil tankers in the selected areas of the Gulf of Finland. 5th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships ICCGS 2010, 14.-16. June 2010, Espoo, Finland. TKK-AM-16: 159-168.
Montewka, J., Hinz, T., Kujala, P. & Matusiak, J. 2010b. Probability modeling of vessel collisions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 95.:573-589.
Pedersen, P.T. 1995. Collision and Grounding Mechanics. Proceedings of WEMT'95. Copenhagen: The Danish Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers. 125-127.
Rambøll. 2006. Navigational safety in the Sound between Denmark and Sweden (Øresund); Risk and cost-benefit analysis. Rambøll Danmark A/S.
Rosqvist, T., Nyman, T., Sonninen, S. & Tuominen, R. 2002. The implementation of the VTMIS system for the Gulf of Finland - a FSA study. Proceedings of the RINA International Conference Formal Safety Assessment; 2002 Sep 18-19; London,UK. 151-164.
Citation note:
Hänninen M., Kujala P., Ylitalo J., Kuronen J.: Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 367-373, 2012

Other publications of authors:


File downloaded 661 times








Important: TransNav.eu cookie usage
The TransNav.eu website uses certain cookies. A cookie is a text-only string of information that the TransNav.EU website transfers to the cookie file of the browser on your computer. Cookies allow the TransNav.eu website to perform properly and remember your browsing history. Cookies also help a website to arrange content to match your preferred interests more quickly. Cookies alone cannot be used to identify you.
Akceptuję pliki cookies z tej strony